The Los Angeles Times has reported a significant change in US-Pakistani usage of drone attacks inside Pakistan territory, and that is that both sides have agreed on a framework to work together. US and Pakistani military officials both anonymously acknowledged that they had joined forces in using US Predator drones to attack Al Qaeda and militant targets inside of Pakistan. At least on the outside, this is quite the sea change as Pakistani authorities have strongly criticized the ‘violating of their sovereignty’ by these types of incursions so far during the Afghan conflict.
The LA Times reports that the Pakistani military and ISI are partnered with a US military drone command center in Jalalabad, where the two sides have been said to work together on sharing intelligence, choosing targets, and operating strikes. One senior U.S. military official said at least two missions had been flown in recent weeks under Pakistani direction.
However, this does not mean 1. That the US and Pakistani military and intelligence agencies completely trust each other 2. That these type of air strikes will have a dramatic impact on reducing Taliban, Al Qaeda, and other insurgent group capabilities or morale. A major issue in not partnering with the Paki ISI and military has been that plain and simple they have proven untrustworthy, especially in terms of their connections with senior Taliban leaders. Why would the US want to tell or partner with someone who may actually really support the enemy? Of course on the other hand, the Pakistani ISI and military could provide a dramatic increase on militant and Al Qaeda intelligence that hides in shadows from US intelligence agencies. The partnering in the drone efforts also bestows a certain amount of legitimacy on the US strikes into Pakistan as they can now be seen as ‘approved’ by the target state itself. This may also help the Pakistan government seem more in control of the situation instead of manhandled by a strong foreign power.
Another facet of this whole debate to remember is that though these drones must make the lives of the Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders filled with fear, they have not so far proven to dent the insurgency or bring stability to the region. The incident in Farah, which I believe was not done by drones but by conventional air strikes, showcases the dangers of these air strikes as civilians will inevitably be killed or injured. How will it sit with Pakistanis to know their government may now be involved? Could this bring further resentment and separation from the people of FATA and the Northwest Provinces, pushing them even more towards the Taliban?
I believe this is an overall positive development as the government of Pakistan appears to be finally taking the threat of the Taliban seriously to their own survival, but it is a move and partnership that comes with many question marks.
