Foreign Policy Blogs

Russia and US grow closer?

Putin: "Maybe he's right about Iran..."  Gates: "I sure am."

Putin: "Maybe he's right about Iran…" Gates: "I sure am."

Today US Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced in a Senate Appropriations Defense subcommittee hearing that Russia has come around to share the same feelings as the US about the urgency of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program.  Gates explained that in a previous meeting with the then-president and now current Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader had pulled out an intelligence map that put Iranian nuclear weapons capacity in a range that could hit Europe and much of Russia at 2020.  It seems that Russia has come back and conceded that it now believes the weapons threat is greater due to increased and revised intelligence.

According to Gates, Putin had:

“basically dismissed the idea that the Iranians would have a missile that would have the range to reach much of western Europe and much of Russia before 2020 or so.  And he showed me a map that his intelligence guys had prepared. I told him he needed a new intelligence service.”

So, in Gates’ book, Moscow is coming closer to Washington over the issue of nuclear threats than it has before.  Given North Korea’s very real nuclear threat, this closeness is called for.  The main question as it effects US-Russia relations is if it will help any in the renegotiation of the START 1 Treaty which is set to expire at the end of this year.  Obama and Medvedev are to meet in Russia July 6-8 and many analysts are pinning hopes on that meeting to bring about a conclusive result for START.  Gates is of a similar mind.  He expects the July meeting to bring about not just a development on START, but also to forge nuclear defense/proliferation partnerships across the board, specifically in the Czech Republic and Poland where the US began planning an eastern European defense shield under the Bush Administration.

Could the missile shield that was so coveted and defended by Washington just a year ago now become a joint project between Russia and the US?  Such a shift would be unexpected and miraculous to say the least.  However, given the Obama Administration’s apparent conciliatory agenda in addition to Russia’s economic desperation (see my colleague Roger Scher’s observation on Russia’s tenuous situation vis-à-vis the other BRIC nations), and Iran’s rising star and burgeoning nuclear technology, such a partnership might not be so far off.  Of course, a host of complications could be involved here, such as pipeline politics, NATO security issues, EU politics and agenda, satellite coordination, WTO negotiations and partnerships/deals to support the war in Afghanistan.

In any case, the Obama administration has remained silent on whether or not it would continue to develop the eastern European missile defense shield if Russia decides not to partner with it in some way.  Since it was proposed and allegedly conceived as a protection for western nations against an Iranian nuclear threat, I don’t think it will go away any time soon.  It remains to be seen if any negotiations with the Iranian government over its nuclear program will take place (Obama has given Iran until the end of 2009 to participate in these talks).  And Friday’s elections might have a large impact on just how much Tehran is willing to participate in international conciliation.

Photo Credit: BBC.

 

Author

Christopher Herbert

Christopher Herbert is an analyst of foreign affairs with specific expertise in US foreign policy, the Middle East and Asia. He is Director of Research for the Denver Research Group, has written for the Washington Post’s PostGlobal and Global Power Barometer and has served on projects for the United States Pacific Command and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. He has degrees from Yale University and Harvard University in Middle Eastern history and politics and speaks English, French, Arabic and Italian.

Area of Focus
US Foreign Policy; Middle East; Asia.

Contact