It appears that tensions are already brewing between the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and President Jacob Zuma. Who could have seen this coming? Other than me, and plenty of others, I mean. (Pardon the self indulgence.)
COSATU feels as if it catapulted Jacob Zuma to the presidency, not only by its support in the recent elections, but perhaps more importantly, by supporting Zuma in the Zuma-Thabo Mbeki split. As a consequence, COSATU, which has always felt it deserved a greater voice in the political process, is demanding its pound of flesh. At the same time, however, Jacob Zuma might be discovering some of the political and macroeconomic realities that Mbeki saw. Governing the country is a lot harder than appeasing even the largest and most powerful of interest groups, and COSATU is an interest group, even if it is not only an interest group.
Expect COSATU and the South African Communist Party (SACP) to grow disenchanted with Zuma’s leadership of their tripartite alliance partner African National Congress just as it grew disenchanted with Mbeki’s leadership, and just as it grew disenchanted (but would never publicly admit it) with Nelson Mandela’s leadership, at least in the economic realm. And thus I believe that my ongoing prediction will come to pass: The ANC will someday face its most serious challenge from the left, in the form of a breakaway COSATU-SACP alliance, and not the right. recent transformations in the country’s politics could well lead to a re-merging of the ANC and the Congress of the People (COPE) if the leftist elements do eventually pursue their own course.
Jacob Zuma wanted the presidency. Now he has it. he might just find that Governing is a lot harder than opposing. No one in politics is more popular among his or her supporters than the opponent of an unpopular president right before he steps into office. As a result, though, while such a leader has incredible opportunities to lead, they also have a long way they can fall if they prove to disappoint those who projected their own hopes and dreams on the candidate irrespective of whether or not those hopes and dreams reflected those of the insurgent.
