The European Union plans to announce today that it sees possible disruptions for its gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine, a liklihood we identified earlier this year. What’s worse, Gazprom is now demanding $230 in debt payments from Belarus, another key gas transit route to western Europe.The payments from Belarus may stem from a political dispute over disagreements including Minsk’s failure to follow Russia’s lead in recognizing the independence of Georgia’s break-way republics and Moscow’s freezing of a $500 million loan for Belarus. However, due to the opacity of the gas trade in eastern Europe, Gazprom’s debt may be legitimate.
The saga of the dispute in eastern Europe is likely to play out in political circles over the summer until the weather gets cold. But for those in Europe looking for a warm apartment in the winter, they should follow Ukraine’s purchases from Russia over the summer. Ukraine’s national gas company, Naftogaz, will unlikely have the cash to pay to fill its storage capacity for the winter heating season. The Ukrainian newspaper Sehodnia reports that the company may not have the funds by as early as July. Unless Ukraine buys its required amount, a new flare-up is in the offing, which portends a few weeks of cold in western Europe.
