Foreign Policy Blogs

In Lebanon, a unified government emerging

It has been nearly three weeks since the Lebanese parliamentary elections, and the current climate of cooperation and reconciliation is cause for optimism.

The highly contentious June 7 elections pitted Amal and Hizballah, along with General Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic Movement bloc against the Saad Hariri-led March 14 coalition composed of Sunni, Christian, and Druze candidates. After months of intense campaigning on both sides, Western-backed March 14 came out on top and so began the post-election period of political wrangling and horse-trading in hopes to relieve the political deadlock that has plagued Lebanon since 2006.

So far, things are progressing in that direction.

Last week, old rivals Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General of Hizballah, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt met in an effort to bury past grievances. The  two sects have been at odds since the civil war and their meeting is seen as a positive step in the overall political reconciliation of Lebanon.

Also meeting this week was Sunni leader Saad Hariri and Speaker Nabih Berri, of Amal Movement. The two were on opposing sides of the June 7 elections , but Hariri met to offer his support in Berri’s effort to extend his stay as Speaker of Parliament. On Thursday, Berri was elected to a fifth consecutive term and it was assumed that he would in turn offer his bloc’s support for Hariri’s bid to become the next Prime Minister of Lebanon. This weekend Hariri received 86 of 128 votes in parliament, including support from Amal, to secure the position.

But not everyone is on the same page with Berri’s conformation as Speaker.   Amin Gemayel and his Phalange bloc cast blank ballots in the vote, seen as an effort to detract from the consensus. However, Phalange did support Hariri for Prime Minister as expected.

Hizballah MPs cast blank ballots for Prime Minister, but signaled that they would be open to work with whoever got the job. The group’s relationship with Fuad Siniora, Lebanon’s previous Prime Minister, had been contentious at times. Last May, Siniora led an effort to shut down Hizballah’s sophisticated communications network, but it seems as though the idea of disarming Hizballah has been tabled for now in the interest of peace and cooperation.

The issue is of Hizballah’s arms remains extremely controversial in Lebanon. Hizballah refuses to disarm on their own and the official Lebanese army is not strong enough yet to disarm them by force, so the consensus in the ruling party for now is to leave the issue for the future to deal today with some problems that are more easily tackled, such as corruption, traffic, or the economy.

The appearance of cooperation looks promising and it is believed  that external influences have played a large part. Syria and Saudi Arabia’s historic rivalry is in a cooler phase at the moment, and both Riyadh and Damascus seem satisfied with the results of the June 7 election.  Hariri, a  billionaire businessman with close ties to the Saudi royal family, blames Syria for his father’s 2005 assassination. It also helped that the US and Iran’s long standing feud was less heated during the election than it had been over the last five years or so.

Often times Lebanon becomes the battlefield for outsiders looking to settle scores on someone else’s territory. Today, aside from some rowdy celebrations in Beirut after Hariri’s confirmation, things look peaceful and promising. It’s always the biggest hope for the people of Lebanon that they may live in peace, and that peace looks closer now than it has in a long time. But the politicians should beware. If this keeps up, the citizens of Lebanon might start demanding more from them beyond just not fighting.

 

Author

Patrick Vibert

Patrick Vibert works as a geopolitical consultant focusing on the Middle East. He has a BA in Finance and an MA in International Relations. He has traveled extensively throughout Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. He lives in Washington DC and attends lectures at the Middle East Institute whenever he can.

Area of Focus
Geopolitics; International Relations; Middle East

Contact