Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar Assad are expected to meet Monday in Damascus to discuss regional affairs. The two nations are rivals in the Middle East and are often at odds with each other.
Last week Saudi Arabia sent two lower level envoys, including the King’s son Prince Abdul Aziz, to Syria with a short list of demands mostly concerning Lebanon and Palestine. The demands were for Syria not to aid the Palestinian resistance outside of the refugee camps; demarcation of the Lebanon-Syrian border especially concerning Sheba Farms; elimination of the Lebanese-Syrian Council; and for Syria to drop the demand for veto power in the Cabinet through its proxies in Lebanon.
Syria expressed a willingness to resolve the border issues with Lebanon, but rejected the other three items.
In the past Hizballah has demanded more control in the government. The situation turned violent in May 2008 when Hizballah forces stormed West Beirut in a show of force. The issue was temporarily resolved by the Doha Agreement, in which the Lebanese government agreed not to attempt to dismantle Hizballah’s communications system and also to leave one of their members in charge of the airport. In addition, Hizballah received veto power in the cabinet, but that part of the agreement expired with the election of a new government in June 2009.
It is expected that Hizballah will reinstate its demand for veto power in the new government. Many feel that, by extension, this would give Hizballah’s patrons (Iran and Syria) undue influence in Lebanese affairs.
Monday’s meeting between the heads of state of each country indicates larger changes afoot in the region. President Obama has made progress towards peace in the Middle East a high priority for his administration, and he is using almost everything at his disposal to further this agenda.
However, many problems in the Middle East are often complicated and overlapping, so addressing any single item often involves addressing several others at the same time. For example, most experts recognize that in order to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, you must also involve, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran at various levels. It is likely that King Abdullah, a staunch ally of the United States, will have this in mind when he meets with President Assad on Monday.
After a long period of hostility between the United States and the Middle East, there seems to be a region-wide thaw occurring. President Assad has invited President Obama to Damascus, a move which signals Syrian willingness to end years of isolation from the West. (If Obama took him up on the offer, he would be the first sitting president to visit Syira since Bill Clinton in 1994.) Last month, Lebanon elected a largely pro-Western government to power. And in Iran, at least before its recent election controversy, the government there seemed to be warming towards better relations with the US and its allies.
The current climate of reconciliation in the region with the West is thought to be largely because of Barak Obama’s “softer” approach to the Muslim world and his harder stances being taken on Israel, a nation that has been the wedge in West-Middle East relations for decades. Also helping the situation is that the United States is winding down its military involvement in Iraq.
In addition, the timing seems to be right for Syria:
“Hezbollah lost the election in Lebanon, Hamas is being subjected to unprecedented attrition and Iran is drowned in its internal crises…All the elements of strength they (Syrians) built their foreign policy on are collapsing, so for certain they are going to reassess and look for alternatives, without abandoning their past.”
Within Lebanon, a Saudi-Syrian reconciliation could also be highly beneficial, as two of the biggest political factions there are backed be these countries.
Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri is thought to be very close with Riyadh, having billions of dollars of investments there. In the weeks leading up to the June elections in Lebanon, it was reported that Saudi Arabia poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Lebanon to secure votes for Hariri’s March 14 coalition.
Syria supports Hizballah and Amal in Lebanon, which make up a large part of the opposition.
With Saudi Arabia and Syria so involved in Lebanon, when they are at odds, ofter their rivalry is played out on Lebanese soil though the parties that they influence. So the fact that they seem to be approaching normal relations is a good sign for Lebanese stability.
Just like the Palestinian example above, in order for there to be peace in Lebanon it is critical to engage the regional actors that have such great influence in this tiny country, because often times peace is only at their discretion. It’s hard enough to maintain order among Lebanon’s dozens of religious sects and political parties without the surrounding nations making trouble. Hopefully out of this current climate of reconciliation emerges something tangible, stable, and long lasting.
