As the protests in Iran seem unlikely to fuel regime change, the prospects of the radical Shi’ite regime obtaining a nuclear weapon returns to the forefront of international debate.
Notably, comments made yesterday by Vice President Joe Biden and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen signal the lack of an internal consensus on how to approach Iran. Biden repeatedly stressed that Israel remains a sovereign country and could attack any country, including Iran, without consulting the United States. Some analysts spun the comments as a “green light” to Israel for an attack, while administration officials rejected the notion that Biden’s comments signal a change in U.S. posture. Even though he did not explicitly advocate a strike, Biden stressed the Iran must make some concessions in order to engage the west, particularly through dialogue with the P-5.
Conversely, Mullen stated that any strike on Iran could lead to a series of unintended consequences that may further destabilize the region. His hesitation for a military solution to resolve the Iran threat does not diminish his unease towards a nuclear Iran.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials reportedly pressured their U.S. and European counterparts to prepare an alternative strategy to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons in the event that dialogue with the regime fails. The “Plan B” strategy would include intense economic sanctions and would not exclude the possibility of a military campaign. U.S. officials remain skeptical over the success of dialogue but they fear that premature posturing towards sanctions would sabotage any potential for an improved relationship with Iran.
The comments from these high ranking officials could constitute a warning to the Iranian regime that the West will not maintain its toothless opposition to the nuclear program. The veiled potential acceptance of an Israeli attack could pressure Iran into increased transparency of its nuclear program. Moreover, the rallying of European support for increased sanctions represents another step towards isolating Iran to add economic stress on the regime. Further, reports that Israel obtained permission to use Saudi Arabian airspace in a strike represent another overture to tacitly threaten the Iranian regime.
