There’s some good news from Italy, and some bad news. I reported on the G-8 summit from a couple of years ago here. Then, President Bush (who?) derailed any substantive agreement. Now, although the G-8 itself seems fully loaded to attack climate change, the leading developing nations involved in the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF) are balking at accepting any hard numbers on reducing emissions. According to the “NY Times” here, “…the emerging powers refused to agree to the specific emissions limits because they wanted industrial countries to commit to midterm goals in 2020, and to follow through on promises of financial and technological help.” That’s the bad news.
The good news is that the G-8 wants to see a 50% reduction overall in greenhouse gases by 2050, the most advanced economies reducing by 80%. Also, both the major developed and the emerging economies are aiming to keep the heat from rising more than 2ºC (3.6ºF) from preindustrial levels. We’ve already come about .78ºC since the beginning of the 20th Century, with most of that coming in just the past 30 years, so the 2ºC target is going to be tough to hit.
In any event, the final declaration from the summit has a lot to say about “Sustainable use of natural resources: climate change, clean energy and technology.” (Start at page 15.) The G-8 asserts that “Consistent with this ambitious long-term objective, we will undertake robust aggregate and individual mid-term reductions, taking into account that baselines may vary and that efforts need to be comparable. Similarly, major emerging economies need to undertake quantifiable actions to collectively reduce emissions significantly below business-as-usual by a specified year.” (My emphasis.)
Let’s see what comes out of the MEF meetings tomorrow, but as of today, there shouldn’t be any further breakthroughs or surprises. I am, perhaps, a bit of a cockeyed optimist and feel as if the relatively consistent and strong statements coming out of the G-8 itself, with the continuing strong efforts of the EU and the Obama Administration underpinning the drive to address climate change thoughtfully and with the requisite urgency it demands, will provide more fertile ground for significant progress, both diplomatically and through the efforts of industry, the NGOs, and all the other many interested and involved parties.
