The ultra-orthodox community in Israel and the settlements continues to gain increased political clout in Israeli politics, according to a new report from the International Crisis Group. Due to high birthrates and political mobilization, these communities will likely prove to be a significant hurdle in the evacuation of settlements and the realization of a two-states solution. In the report, the International Crisis group offers various solutions to counter the political weight of the ultra-orthodox community. The recommendations include the passage of a law to offer increased financial compensation to settlers who evacuate ahead of forced re-locations; early planning for the future resettlement of settlers; considerations of terms for settlers who choose to remain in a future Palestinian state; and increased U.S. outreach to the settlers. The report states,
“The effort to settle in the occupied territories once was led by secular Zionists. No more. Today, the settlement issue is being quickly transformed by the shifting dynamics of the religious right. Tens of thousands of national-religious Jews populate the settlements; they enjoy political, logistical and other forms of support from hundreds of thousands inside Israel proper. In addition, an equal if not larger number of ultra-orthodox who initially shared little of the national-religious outlook, gradually have been gravitating toward their view; many among them are now settlers. Together, the national-religious and ultra-orthodox carry weight far in excess of their numbers. They occupy key positions in the military, the government and the education and legal sectors, as well as various layers of the bureaucracy. They help shape decision-making and provide a support base for religious militants, thereby strengthening the struggle against future territorial withdrawals from both within and without state institutions.
The religious right believes it has time on its side. Its two principal camps – the national-religious and ultra-orthodox – boast the country’s highest birth rates. They have doubled their population in West Bank settlements in a decade. They are rising up military ranks. Their political parties traditionally play important roles within ruling government coalitions. Many – in the leadership and among the grassroots – are preparing the ground for the next battle over settlements and territorial withdrawal, animated by a deeply rooted conviction in the rightness of their cause. Treating every confrontation – however insignificant the apparent stake – as a test of wills, religious militants have responded to the demolition of plyboard huts with revenge strikes on Palestinians, stoning their cars, burning their crops, cutting their trees and occasionally opening fire. Mainstream religious leaders for the most part appear powerless to condemn, let alone tamp down the violence.”
Even though some of the solutions may lure settlers out of the West Bank, many settlers are likely to remain in the territories on ideological grounds. They believe that biblical Israel includes the West Bank and that the territory was given to the Jews by God. Financial terms and pressure are unlikely to persuade these settlers from relocation. The only remaining options are either a forced relocation using the military or permitting the settlers to remain in a future Palestinian state. The former option would likely result in bloodshed of Jew on Jew; the latter would likely result in the bloodshed of Arabs and Jews.
