President Felipe Calderón is trying his hand at regional power broker. Deposed Honduran President Manuel Zelaya called on Mexico yesterday to bolster his presidential claims, hoping that Mexico can exert the necessary diplomatic pressure to return him to office. Costa Rican President Óscar Arias notably failed to broker a change in Zelaya’s status over the past month, a disappointment only made worse by Secretary of State Clinton’s rebuke of Zelaya’s symbolic border crossing into Honduras ten days ago.
The world quickly relegated the story of the Honduran coup on June 28. As coups go, it was a jejune affair. Zelaya was booted by the Honduran military for overtures to change the Constitution in order to run for another term, Roberto Micheletti was proclaimed interim president, and most Hondurans accepted the transition without much consternation. Five people have been killed in incidents related to the crisis.
But Zelaya has continued to lobby for reinstatement as president. America, the only nation that could surely return Mr. Zelaya to power, is keeping its distance from the affair. Lacking forceful action by the US, Zelaya initially turned to his leftist allies in the region for assistance. They cooked up a plot to fly into Honduras together. Unfortunately for Mr. Zelaya, the airport runway was blocked, depriving him of a return to Honduran soil and depriving Chávez & Co. an opportunity for diplomatic courage points. (Why didn’t Zelaya charter a diversion plane to fly to the capital while landing his plane at a less obvious airport?) As is often the case in the region, relying on Hugo Chávez and Cristina Kirchner for more than bombast and a grand gesture is just wishful thinking.
Mr. Zelaya is now being more realistic. By cozying to President Calderón he is trading rhetoric for relevance. Mexico dominates the Central American sphere by historically serving as the chief hub to the America market. The meeting proved immediately beneficial to Zelaya, as Calderón stated he would take up Zelaya’s reinstatement “more intensely.” Zelaya will soon be in Brazil, looking to gain similar support from Latin America’s largest economy.
Zelaya may be signaling a newfound distance from the region’s notorious leftists. A long time ally of President Chávez, a move toward centre-right Mexico could mean Zelaya now heeds the rocky shoals of solipsism. This is the view of certain commentators. If so, it could mean a warm reception in other centrist or right-leaning countries. But perhaps the dichotomy lies elsewhere. Rather than simply a reorientation to the right, Zelaya’s move to curry favor with Calderón (centre-right) and Lula (centre-left) indicates, in my opinion, a newfound appreciation for the rule of law. Adherence to the law and democratic institutions are well respected in many left-leaning nations (Brazil, Chile, etc.) in the region. Unfortunately, such respects are scant in Venezuela, Bolivia, and elsewhere. Regardless of how we read his moves, it seems Zelaya would now agree that trying to change Honduras’ Constitution Hugo-style wasn’t such a great idea after all.
