Officials from Hizballah and Israel have been exchanging hostile words recently. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak indicated that all of Lebanon would pay the price for any Hizballah transgressions against Israel. Hizballah representatives indicated that the guerrilla group is more than prepared for another confrontation with Israel, and is suspected of possessing over 40,000 rockets.
In 2006, Hizballah and Israel fought a destructive 34 day war that caused billions of dollars in damage and cost hundreds of lives, mostly Lebanese. Israel received a lot of criticism for targeting Lebanon’s infrastructure in areas outside of Hizballah control. However, Mr. Barak said that in 2006 Israel operated with restraint, but the next time they fought Hizballah, this would not be the case.
“What happened in the second Lebanon war will not happen again … at the time a message from the United States indicated we must spare Lebanon’s infrastructure,” he said.
According to Beirut’s Daily Star, “on Tuesday, Barak warned that Israel would not differentiate between the Lebanese government and military action carried out by Hizbullah. He called for the group to surrender its arms and accused the Lebanese Army of tacitly supporting its military operations.”
Hizballah has made strong political gains in Lebanon recently and it seems unlikely that they would risk another- possibly more devastating- engagement with Israel. Also, Lebanon has been spared from some of the more damaging aspects of the current financial crisis and its economy, particularly the banking and tourism sectors, continues to grow. It seems Hizballah has a lot to lose and little to gain from another war with their neighbors to the south.
The verbal hostilities between Israel and Hizballah come as US President Barack Obama is expected to release a comprehensive plan for stability in the region in the coming weeks. The sweeping plan is expected to involve multiple nations, not just Lebanon and Israel or Israel and Palestine. Many experts believe that any effective Middle East peace plan would require multilateral participation from everyone involved, including Egypt, Syria, Iran, and the Gulf states.
As tensions between Israel and Hizballah heat up this summer, it will be interesting to see how each proceeds. Israel clearly feels threatened by Hizballah, but an all out attack on Lebanon would be extremely costly politically, especially as President Obama has made it clear that long lasting stability in the Middle East is one of the cornerstones of his administration’s agenda.
President Obama is already “at odds” with the conservative government in Israel. Any move on Israel’s behalf that was percieved as overly agressive towards Lebanon would represent not just a break in US-Israel relations, but a chasm. For now, this confrontational rhetoric may be just poltical fodder for both sides, but it could escalate quickly if they are not careful.
