If you want a sense of the deep divisions among serious observers of the situation in Zimbabwe you could do worse than to draw a sense of the schizophrenia indicated by two recent articles in the Mail & Guardian:
In A New Beginning? David Smith posits (with trepidation, as the question mark in the title indicates) that things might be getting better even as some things remain status quo ante:
Schools and hospitals returning to life. Food in the supermarkets and queues at the tills. Investors flying in and refugees coming home. Independent newspapers due for launch and international media broadcasting openly. Book fairs, poetry slams and jazz festivals drawing crowds. A president and prime minister laughing together as they call for national healing. This is Zimbabwe in August 2009.
Politically motivated beatings turning families against themselves. Villagers bartering chickens in the absence of a new currency. MPs, lawyers, journalists and students under arrest. Corruption rampant and another cholera outbreak predicted. A president rebuilding his tools of oppression and a prime minister said to be in danger of assassination. This, too, is Zimbabwe in August 2009.
In Time to Get Tough on Bob Mandy Rossouw and Jason Moyo argue that signs point to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) realizing that, well, it’s time to get tough on Robert Mugabe:
President Jacob Zuma is set to ask the Southern African Development Community to drop Thabo Mbeki as its mediator in Zimbabwe.
It is a sign that South Africa’s stance on its northern neighbour has shifted.
Observers said Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe will find there is a new sheriff in town when Zuma visits his country soon.Zuma is expected to visit Zimbabwe in response to an invitation from the Zimbabwean government, but an official state visit is not yet on the cards.
Those around him said this week that he is keen to deal with the Zimbabwean situation as quickly as possible, in part to stem the flow of refugees to South Africa, but also to show Mugabe that Mbeki’s softly-softly approach is a thing of the past. They said Zuma is in contact with Mbeki about Zimbabwe, but that the relationship is “uncomfortable” and it would be better if the former president were out of the picture.
Things are certainly getting better in Zimbabwe even if much remains stagnated. Applying pressure to Mugabe is a policy that is long overdue IF the policy will have the effect of either changing Mugabe’s behavior or forcing him to step down. But a policy that allows Mugabe merely to use such pressure as a pretext for cracking down on the opposition and any public perceived as supporting him will certainly shatter any fragile peace and progress that has emerged in the months just passed. Tellingly, however, Morgan Tsvangirai, Prime Minister and leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, which putatively shares power with Mugabe and his ZANU-PF, seems to have indicated to Zuma that progress in Zimbabwe is slower than Tsvangirai expected and that SADC may need to act more firmly. Given that Tsvangirai has consistently urged caution in dealing with his country and that no one knows better than he just how fragile things are there, his willingness to roll the dice and encourage greater outside pressure probably represents the closest we are likely to get to his simmering frustrations boiling over.
