America’s decline is a false prophecy. Writing in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs and yesterday’s International Herald Tribune, Josef Joffe, co-editor of Die Zeit and a fellow at the Hoover Institution, argues that even though it is fashionable again to speak of America’s fall and the rise of others, the United States will remain the world’s default power for years to come.
The story of America’s decline is everywhere, but according to him the tale is wrong. “The history of declinism shows that doom arrives in cycles, and what comes and goes, logically, does not a trend make,” he writes. “Today, as after past prophecies of imminent debility, the United States remains first on any scale of power that matters – economic, military, diplomatic or cultural – despite being embroiled in two wars and beset by the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.”
“Never before in modern history have the gaps between great powers been so wide.” The US economy is worth three times as much as the world’s second largest economy, Japan, and it’s almost as large as the combined total of the four closest competitors, Japan, China, Germany and France. And Washington’s defense spending is nearly half the globe’s total military expenses – no one else comes close.
The United States will also retain its position and international role because of its “warrior culture” and “unmatched research and higher-education establishment.” America’s world-renowned universities and research and development outlays will enable the country to project power in the future.
“The United States is the default power because there is nobody else with the requisite power and purpose. The default power does what others cannot or will not do.” It’s hard to imagine any other country defending common goods.
But what about the rising powers?
While it is the most touted emerging economy, “China, it seems, still has a way to go before it can dethrone the United States.” Beijing will face myriad challenges, including economic reforms, social cohesion and demographic deterioration. “Estimates that China’s economy will grow by six percent in 2009 are another cautionary tale. China’s growth has dropped by half from a historical high of almost 12 percent in 2007, which serves as a warning that its miraculous growth is foreign made – China is a place where the rest of the world essentially rents workers and workspace at deflated prices and distorted exchange rates.”
Don’t believe all the hype and hysteria, America isn’t going anywhere. “Gainsayers will still dramatize China’s growth rates as a harbinger of a grand power shift. But as the 21st century unfolds, the United States will be younger and more dynamic than its competitors.”
If this is all true, maybe we should rename this blog. Perhaps we can call it America’s Lasting Power.
Image from The New York Times Magazine.
