The former project director of India’s 1998 nuclear tests has created a controversy by claiming that the tests were not entirely successful and did not yield the desired results. According to media reports K Sanathanam has also recommended that India conduct additional nuclear tests for security and strategic needs. “We can’t get into a stampede to sign CTBT. We should conduct more nuclear tests which are necessary from the point of view of security,” K Santhanam said.
Other Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) scientists R Chidambaram and A P J Abdul Kalam, and former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra have dismissed claims that the yield of the thermonuclear test were inadequate. In 1998 western experts had raised doubts about India’s claims that the thermonuclear device had actually yielded 45 KT (15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process). Indian scientists had said that the “theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimize seismic damage to villages near the test range.” The Indian government has yet to make any formal comment on the issue. Home Minister P Chidambaram has said that the government will look into the matter.
If K Sanathanam’s claims are proved right it would be a major strategic and diplomatic humiliation for India. It would raise doubts about India’s security preparedness and reduce the value of its nuclear deterrent vis-s-vis Pakistan. It would be a test of the Indian government’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. This would also raise questions about the real motives for India’s refusal to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). India has maintained that the treaty is discriminatory and in spite of not be a signatory to the CTBT and NPT it has always fulfilled its non-proliferation obligations. India stands to lose face and international trust if it is proved that it might need to conduct more nuclear tests. The Indo-US civilian nuclear energy deal could also be in jeopardy as a consequence. The deal’s negotiations depended largely on assuring the US that India has a sufficient deterrent and is not interested in conducting any more tests. The Obama administration is keen on stepping up its non-proliferation efforts, and is said to be pressuring India to sign the CTBT.
The Manmohan Singh government could either choose to dismiss the claims as incorrect without providing detailed information for ‘security reasons’; or it could conduct a detailed investigation and put the controversy to rest. Either ways the Indian government would have to re-evaluate its security preparedness seriously.
