AP / Lehtikuva – Refugees in Yunnan
– Strong 2nd Quarter economic growth was shown in the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Singapore did especially well, recovering from the worst recession in its history. The rebound in these states is attributed to government stimulus, financial reforms, and strong industrial fundamentals. However, exports still drag, largely due to weak Western (and Japanese) markets. Southeast Asian consumer confidence has slowly ticked up though.
– Ousted Thai Premier Thaksin Shinawatra is causing more political turmoil from exile. His red-shirt supporters will rally this Sunday, which could be a continuation of the violent anti-government riots in April of 2009. Current PM, Abhisit Vejjajiva has the support of the military, royalists, and business elite, but has yet to gain the favor of the poor, Thaksin’s key constituents, who feel marginalized by Bangkok’s elites. Some analysts see the governments use of the “Internal Security Act” to mobilize the military at a sub-martial law level, as a sign that Abhsit knows his ruling coalition is fracturing and fear the instability may spillover into the streets — again. The economy is part of what is hurting Abhisit, but the rate of economic recovery is not fully under his control, as the recession is global in nature, still…
In opinion polls by Assumption University, Abhisit was rated a less competent economic leader than Thaksin. A July poll showed Thaksin marginally more popular.
This only benefits Thakisin and the opposition, but t is unclear what Thaksin wants. It is unlikely he will receive a pardon from the Thai king, so if he returns to Thailand he will faces criminal charges. Some think he wants to force a collapses of the current government and help to usher the Puea Thai Party into power, which he supports, in hope that they will help rehabilitate him and recover his US$2 billion in assets the Thai government has frozen.
– The Arroyo government rejects demands to end U.S. military assistance. Since 2000, the U.S. has given US$40 million (2 billion Filipino pesos) in military and humanitarian aid to the Philippines, primarily to provide security training and economic development on the poverty stricken war ravaged island of Mindanao. Opposition politicians believe that the 300 soldiers from the U.S. Special Operations Command have violated the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) by taking part in actual combat missions against terrorist groups operating on Mindanao, not simply training and advising the Filipino military.
While China is one of the few nations in the world seeking to establish stronger bilateral ties with Myanmar, thousands of Myanmar’s citizens are trying to establish closer ties with China by fleeing across the border into China’s Yunnan Province from Kokang, a region in the Shan state. Two decades of calm in the region ended with fighting between the Burmese junta , local militias, and breakaway ethnic minority factions. The UN is reporting that 10-30,o00 people have fled into Yunnan since August 8th and that China is providing emergency shelter, food, and medical care for the refugees. Myanmar already has thousands of ethnic Karens in refugee camps on the Thai border, all of which is a continuation of various ethnic warfare that has been taking place in Myanmar since 1948. In recent years the ethnic Burmese led military junta that rules the nation has made some strides in pacifying the various ethnic militias to bring the nation firmly under its control, but every group is not interested in cooperating.
There has been several skirmishes in the last week, not far from the Chinese border and several dozen Burmese troops are believed to have been killed. The Burmese government intends to escalate in the area. The latest fighting could be due to the Myanmar military pledge to crack down on drug smuggling earlier in the month. The rebels in Kokang are believed to be allied with the United Wa State Army, an ethnic militia that is believed to have 20,000 soldiers, anti-tank missiles, and field artillery. To the north, the Kachin Independence Army has 4,000 men. It is believed that various armed groups have mutual defense treaties with each other in case of a central government attack. If true, this could result in a much larger conflict in Eastern Myanmar.
