Today’s newspapers are all buzzing with one news: Russia has stated that sanctions against Iran are unlikely. Newspapers, like the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov on Thursday as saying Moscow wouldn’t back any new rounds of tough sanctions against Iran in the United Nations Security Council. “I do not think those sanctions will be approved by the United Nations Security Council,” Mr. Lavrov said at a gathering of experts on Russia. Mr. Lavrov also repudiated U.S. and Israeli warnings of urgency. If Iran tried to enrich uranium to weapons grade, he said, it would have to reconfigure its cascades of centrifuges, a move that would immediately be picked up by cameras monitored by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency. There would be time to respond, he said.
Mr. Lavrov further stated that he believed that a new set of proposals that Iran gave to European nations on Wednesday offered a viable basis for negotiations to end the dispute. “Based on a brief review of the Iranian papers, my impression is there is something there to use. The most important thing is Iran is ready for a comprehensive discussion of the situation, what positive role it can play in Iraq, Afghanistan and the region,” Mr. Lavrov said.
Iran’s package of proposal, however, failed to impress the United States and other Western nation, as it did not even address Iran’s continuing uranium enrichment. The five-page Iranian proposal, hand-delivered to foreign diplomats in Tehran on Wednesday, has not been made public, but a copy was obtained by ProPublica and is available on their website. Here is a description of the proposal by ProPublica:
It is also similar to past proposals in that it begins with a flowery recitation of Iran’s view of the world and its place in it. One half of the proposal is a preamble that borrows, in part, from themes included in Obama’s April speeches on nuclear disarmament and Middle East peace. It also emphasizes Iranian national sovereignty and takes a veiled swipe at critics of Iran’s contested June presidential election.
The second half of the proposal outlines three broad areas for discussion, including political and security issues, international issues and economic issues.
While there is no mention of Israel, the political security section wades into the prospects for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The proposal welcomes efforts “to draw a comprehensive, democratic and equitable plan to help the people of Palestine to achieve all-embracing peace.” Iran’s long-stated policy has been to reject Israel’s right to exist.
The Iranian offer also seeks talks on issues that have become increasingly problematic for Iran’s national security, such as drug trafficking, illegal migration and organized crime. Iran has long struggled to stem the flow of drugs and people entering its borders from Afghanistan and now from Iraq.
The Iranian proposal includes seven items for discussion under the theme of international issues, including “putting into action real and fundamental programs toward complete disarmament and preventing development and proliferation of nuclear, chemical” and biological weapons.
So is there anything that can be done to change Russia’s mind? Probably not. As the Economist points out Russian economy is in a sticky situation:
Russia’s reserve fund, built up over several years thanks to high oil prices, will shrink to US$52bn in the third quarter of this year from a peak of US$137bn in March, and is expected to be empty by the end of 2010 as transfers are required to plug the yawning gap between government revenue and spending. Assuming that by 2011 the global economy is growing robustly once more, the reserve fund will have done its job. If not, Russia’s government, which has hiked spending sharply in recent years, is likely to return to the international debt markets-and this could change the political realities in which the country’s rulers operate.
It will be a hard job to convince Russians to let go of their most dependent trading partner. Iran has come to rely on Russia to acquire military weapons. Russia has sold and now delivered to Iran (January 2007) 30 anti-aircraft missile systems (Tor M1), worth over $1 billion. (For more details on Iran-Russia Arms Trade, here is a CFR backgrounder).
Iran also relies on Russia for its energy needs. Lukoil, a Russian company, is a major provider of gasoline to Iran. Moreover, as reported in the CRS report, Iran’s Economic Conditions: U.S. Policy Issues, in February 2008, Russian state gas company Gazprom announced a deal to establish a joint venture company to develop the offshore Iranian South Pars gas field. In March 2009, Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) reportedly concluded a hydrocarbon swap agreement under which Gazprom agreed to deliver Turkmen gas to Iran in exchange for gas and petroleum products from Iran.
Iranian imports from Russia more than tripled from 2000 to 2007 and registered at about $3 million in 2007. Here are statistics taken from IMF on Iran’s trade relationship with Russia:
Major Export Markets and Sources of Imports for Iran, FY2007
(millions of U.S. dollars)
Total Trade: 3,272
Exports: 282
Imports: 2,990
Trade Balance: -2,708
Considering the strong trade relations between Iran and Russia, and the tense relationship between Russia and the United States in the aftermath of Russian invasion of Georgia, it is no surprise that Russia is not supporting new U.N. sanctions on Iran.
Photo taken from here.
