General Stanley McChrystal, the Obama Administration’s guy in South Asia, has warned that without more troops the war in Afghanistan “will likely fail”, reports the Washington Post.
President Barack Obama, not surprisingly, is worried about becoming embroiled in an escalating situation, where victory only requires an ever-increasing number of ‘just a few more (thousands) troops”. Worse, the aftermath of the Afghan election leaves little doubt that the Western-backed government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai engaged in widespread voter fraud—little different than the daily corruption undermining confidence in the Afghan government. McChrystal’s report stated, “The weakness of state institutions, malign actions of power-brokers, widespread corruption and abuse of power by various officials, and ISAF’s own errors, have given Afghans little reason to support their government”.
One wonders whether President Obama is confident that, were ISAF still stalemated a year from now, withdrawal from Afghanistan would be politically popular. Building the necessary state structures—in Afghanistan, with a roaring insurgency—will take years of blood and treasury, and distract from Obama’s domestic goals (and any other foreign policy ideas he might have). I am skeptical any typical COIN strategy can possibly have the desired effect in a country where seventy-five percent of the population lives in a rural area.
The Obama Administration needs to decide what it wants out of Afghanistan. If it wants to check al-Qaeda, that is certainly possible without thousands of boots on the ground (and may even be easier). If they want, however, to commit themselves to building a modern state, they’re envisioning a project which will take more years than they have in office (regardless of a successful reelection). They need to decide, and soon.
