The never-ending year lurches on in Mexico. Verano becomes otoño, drug violence headlines become H1N1 headlines. Good news is Mexico has a track record of ably handling the pandemic. Bad news is upwards of 5 million in Mexico are expected to contract the infamous strand of influenza this winter. Perhaps 2,000 could die as a result. Already this month there have been as many as 483 diagnosed in one day, eclipsing April’s peak.
With such a scale, Mexico may face challenges it did not have in April. Last week 3,000 schools closed as a result of H1N1. That number quickly dropped to just over 100, and Education Secretary Alonso Lujambio recently told senators that the government is working out criteria for future school closings. Government officials are hinting that mass closings are unlikely, and given past management of the crisis their word should be taken. Solace comes from preparation and what the CDC terms a “lucky break.” Flu shots are not expected until October, but so far the virus shows no signs of mutating, meaning the antidote should match the poison. Will rural hospitals get their hands on ample stocks? This time around distribution, not diagnosis, is likely to be the measuring stick by which the Mexican government’s response is judged.
