Meet the new generation of voters—same as the old generation. A British study has concluded that half of all babies born in wealthy countries will live to be 100 years old. This is certainly a good thing—more of the most fleeting resource humanity has (time) is nothing to play down. But for countries with long established welfare and pension systems, this potential sharp increase in the elderly will cause significant problems to financial solvency, and will require a reexamination of social policies.
By no means does this imply the welfare state is soon to be history. Living out the remaining years of one’s life in dignity and peace (that’s the idea, at least) are by now an established rule of the West. It does, however, definitely mean adjustments are in order. Higher tax rates, older retirement ages, and lower benefits are all likely possibilities if more and more of this new-old generation break the century mark. All three of these policy solutions would be deeply unpopular, wherever enacted, but necessity will demand their implementation.
Not only will the welfare states of the world be changed by this growth of beneficiaries, so will other issues in politics. Namely, if older voters continue to vote at reliable rates, education and other programs aimed at children and young adults will get a shorter shrift. Voters care about issues that are close to their heart. If the developed world gradually gains a much greater number of elderly people, more attention will be paid in political debates to issues pertinent to these long-lived generations. (Indeed, the BBC article linked above states, “Plans for a National Care Service to provide free at-home support for elderly people in the greatest need were announced by the prime minister at the Labour Party conference.” This may be a policy already needed, but policies such as this one will only become more and more popular—and expensive—over time.)
This scenario would also make the status quo more difficult to change (as younger voters are the most receptive to change, whereas older voters are the least likely to be in favor of ideas and programs that are not born out of their own living-historical context), and would entrench older attitudes that may no longer reflect the desire of the societies’ in question. On the bright side, this change in lifespans could help humans better see the long arc of history, and take more cautious and realistic views of what political actions can and cannot do.
