Lebanon has been without a working government since its June parliamentary elections, but now with all the major external hurdles cleared Lebanon looks to within to form its cabinet.
Syria and Saudia Arabia hold tremendous influence in Lebanon, and the frosty relations between them were seen as a one of the largest obstacles to Lebanon forming a working government, but the leaders of both nations met recently and reconciled their differences. So now, with everyone from Syria to Saudi Arabia to France to the United States on board, the only thing standing in Lebanon’s way is Lebanon itself.
Lebanon’s fractious political system is caused by its sectarian divisions, mostly split three ways between Sunni, Shia, and Maronite Christians. The struggle between each group for supremacy was a main reason for Lebanon’s civil war, and now it’s the main reason for such consistent government gridlock.
Today there are two camps, one Sunnis and one Shia, with the Maronites split between them. Roughly half of the Maronites went with the Sunnis to form the pro-Western Saad Hairi-led March 14 coalition, while the Christian Free Patriotic Movement, led by Micheal Aoun, went with the Shia parties of Hizballah and Amal to form the pro-Syrian March 8 bloc. Negotiations between the two factions have been progressing slowly but steadily for the last few months.
President Suleiman has been acting as an independent arbiter throughout. Mr. Suleiman remained neutral throughout the parliamentary elections to convey that his administration would not be taking sides and that he would like a Lebanon governed by consensus rather than one party ruling over another.
Many meetings have taken place over the last few months to hammer out a cabinet makeup acceptable to all. The 15-10-5 cabinet seat distribution format has been agreed upon, with the ruling party getting the most seats, the opposition getting ten seats, and the president controlling five for himself to give his office sway over the balance of power.
The main sticking point in the negotiations, which arose shortly after the elections, is the telecommunications seat. Aoun wants the seat given to his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, but Hariri disagrees and both sides have been stubborn about the issue. Hariri is adamant that Bassil should not be given the post, as he did not win his district in the parliamentary elections. Aoun contends that winning one’s district is not a prerequisite for a cabinet post. Recently, Hariri allowed that Aoun’s party could have the telecommunications seat as long as he didn’t fill it with his son-in-law, but this offer was rejected.
Mr. Bassil said to Narharnet that the Free Patriotic Movement was for the quick formation of a cabinet, but was adamant about his party’s demands saying, “We have a minimum level of demands which (Hariri) knows and we won’t relinquish them.” He added, “Let him give us our rights and the cabinet would be formed tomorrow.”
At this point, it’s hard to tell who is rightly holding out and who is just being stubborn. On one hand, Mr. Aoun’s demand seems to be the only remaining obstacle to Lebanon getting a government, as the external influencers have reconciled and most of the internal forces have been largely quiet. If he could just let this one thing go then Lebanon could form a government and get on with developing itself as a nation. On the other hand, maybe Mr. Hariri is the stickler. If he would just let Aoun fill the seat with whomever he wants, then everyone could get on with their lives.
The only thing for sure right now is that something has to give. The problem is that no one wants to relent and appear weak. A loss here would be tougher to swallow for Aoun, especially since he has made such a big deal of it. Hariri certainly wouldn’t enjoy a loss in this showdown, but it wouldn’t hurt him as much as it would Aoun, and he would look like a hero for delivering on his mission to form a government.
It’s strange that Lebanon is wallowing in stagnation over such a seemingly small issue, so there must be more going on here than meets the eye.
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