Saeb Erekat, the longtime chief Palestinian negotiator, has cast doubts on the two-state solution. Erekat is, in my memory, the most senior Palestinian official to publicly argue that two states between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River are not plausible.
Coming on the heels of the embarrassing failure (as of now) of the Obama administration to bring the parties back to the table, Erekat’s words have great resonance to observers. Many Palestinians, furious over continued settlement growth in the West Bank, are no longer convinced that any Palestinian state will be viable—that is, a single, contiguous piece of land, with clear north-south accessways. The rapid growth of settlements like Ma’ale Adumim—almost halfway between West Jerusalem and the Dead Sea, with basically nothing but the Judean Hills to its east—would seem to corroborate this belief. And it’s not like Ma’ale Adumim is going to be evacuated in any peace agreement—around 35,000 Israelis currently live there, and that number is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Its neighborhoods resemble the nicest parts of Los Angeles (though, to be fair, I’ve only been to Ma’ale Adumim, and not LA).
If Palestinians begin to advocate for equal rights inside the state of Israel, there will be a number of decisions for Israel and the United States to make. Israel may sense the ‘demographic’ threat and unilaterally declare borders (likely along the separation fence), and wash their hands of any settlements outside of the barrier. (It is likely that any Israeli settlers east of the border would return to Israel proper if the protection of the IDF were removed.) This, in my mind, is the most likely scenario, but it won’t go down well on the Arab street, and Washington will have its hands full deciding on whether to recognize a unilateral border. The second, a binational state, would seem to be the preferred outcome of Palestinians (they would soon have a majority in any ‘one state’), but I find the possibility to be highly unlikely—I don’t think any Israeli government would be willing to concede the death of the Jewish state. The vision that Israel will be forced—by conscience, outside pressure, whatever—to give equal rights to Palestinians living in the West Bank seems a bit illusory to me.
Indeed, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu went toe-to-toe with President Barack Obama on the issue of settlements, and it was Obama who blinked first. This is a major short term victory for Bibi, but one wonders whether Obama will soon forget this deliberate poke in his eye. In any case, it seems like we’ll have to wait until Palestinian elections in January to see what the Obama administration’s next step will be on I-P.
