Uniter Wa State Army
Cambodia and Thailand – Thailand recalled its ambassador from Cambodia on November 5th over former Thai PM and wanted fugitive, Thaksin Shinawatra’s appointment as economic adviser to Cambodian PM Hun Sen. A few weeks back there were rumors that Shinawatra would be allowed to move to Cambodia, but the Cambodian government denied this after Thai complaints. It seems they have reversed their position (publicly). The main source of Thai government objections are as stated previously on this blog:
…Thaksin has been in communication with factions loyal to him, known collectively as the Red Shirts (National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD)), which have been responsible for several paralyzing mass public protests in Bangkok and other areas.
Incensed, Bangkok, seeing this as Cambodia interference in its internal affairs, has threatened to re-evaluate various agreements between the two nations. Then again, Hun Sen has refused to honor the bilateral agreement that Cambodia has with Thailand to extradite wanted criminals. It is also rumored that after Shinawatra’s arrival in Cambodia on November 12th, he will meet with a “Red Shirt” group on the Thai-Cambodian border, if true this confirms Thai government fears.
Indonesia – A good article at Asia Times over Indonesia’s Detachment 88, the military unit charged with hunting down jihadis in-country. The unit has come under heavy criticism for its high kill to capture ratio. The unit’s defense is that jihadis will not often allow themselves to be taken alive. There is also the issue of training and equipment:
There is a suspicion that police have been simply killing the suspects to dispense with the headaches of long and perhaps theatrical trials. But Detachment 88’s reluctance to engage the militants at close quarters probably stems from the fact that it has insufficient teargas and stun grenades and, more importantly, the advanced training to use them effectively.
SNIP
Detachment 88 teams are taught to run through a so-called “continuum” before resorting to deadly force, but experts say time and budget constraints and other circumstances make a step-by-step escalation difficult. It is always the on-scene commander who dictates strategy, based on the unit’s policy on the Rules of Engagement (ROE) and Rules of the Use of Force (RUF) – issues which were addressed from the beginning.
The article goes into further detail about the U.S. State Department’s role in the development of the unit and where it has fell short in training, possibly due to American domestic political considerations.
Myanmar: After the Myanmar’s national army August offensive in the Kokang region, other ethnic militia’s such as the United Wa State Army are on alert. The Burmese junta want the Wa to merge with the national security forces, but the Wa have so far refused. It appears that to consolidate power before next years national election, the national armed forces will attempt to destroy crush the Wa militias and reclaim sovereignty over the area. This will be no small feet as the Wa are believed to have as many as 20,000 standing soldiers, with as many as 30,000 more in reserve. Moreover, they have a tradition of being a martial people, and they are well armed:
The potential scale of conflict is daunting. The Wa have a significant arsenal, including about 300 shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, antitank weapons and ample assault rifles and ammunition, said Col. Peeranate Katetem of the Thai Army, who has spent a decade tracking the Wa.
This conflict can affect the entire region as a large amount of the Wa state’s revenue comes from illegal drug sales, any conflict will likely increase drug flows over Asia as the Wa seek to finance their defense.
The Wa are also not under one united government, but instead the area is controlled by a group of oligarchs who have divided the area into fiefdoms. The Burmese junta do have the advantage of a more unified seasoned army, with superior man-power, and more sophisticated weapons. It is doubtful the Wa can maintain a prolonged defense, unless supplied from China, but it is not clear Beijing will take sides in the conflict despite having historic ties to the break away region and the Burmese central government. Officially China has called for peace along the border. Conflict will inhibit trade and cause a potential refugee crisis on the Chinese border, in an already improvershed region. The U.S. government has expressed its concern over potential human rights violations on both sides.
