Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is on the verge of resigning his post—and with him will go many top Palestinian Authority officials. While it remains to be seen just what the fallout will be, it is certain to say that this will upend the status quo in the region.
Abbas, the quintessential Palestinian moderate, has gotten nothing for his nearly five-year consistent effort to restart peace talks with Israel. He has not gotten any concessions he desired, he was forced by the United States to conduct parliamentary elections—which Fatah then decisively lost to Hamas—and now the Obama administration is seemingly backtracking on Israeli settlements. What little credibility he maintained on the Palestinian Street was shredded during the Goldstone Report fiasco.
If Abu Mazen does indeed quit, it is likely whatever Palestinian politician or political entity steps into the gap will not have a keen eye on restarting non-existent negotiations while settlement building continues apace. Palestinians will most likely look once again to the path of ‘resistance’ to the occupation, though what that could entail at this point (with virtually no way for bombers to enter Israel from the West Bank or Gaza) is up in the air. But if Palestinians start calling for the vote and equal rights inside Israel, it will force Israel’s hand to either unilaterally declare borders (which I still would expect them to do), or, insanely, ignore the Palestinian demand. Either way, a unilateral declaration of borders will enrage Europe (and some elements in the Obama administration), the Arab Street will go ballistic, and Israel could become ever more isolated.
It is too early to say a two-state solution is dead—and much too soon to say that a one-state solution is an inevitability—but prospects have perhaps never looked so grim (which is saying something). There has been strange media silence following Netanyahu’s meeting with Obama—after a long delay by the White House in accepting the meet—which, if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, implies that Obama didn’t promise to veto the much-rumored Fayyad plan for an immediate (or soon) Palestinian declaration of independence covering all of the West Bank and Gaza.
Obama must realize that if he wants a two-state solution, the only way to get to serious negotiations is to use the considerable American leverage on Israel. The next two months will certainly be full of twists and turns—as evermore—in I-P.
