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Betting on Copenhagen

There are all sorts of prognoses for what’s going to happen in a couple of weeks at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP15).  Some are calling this the most important international meeting of minds since the Bretton Woods and San Francisco conferences created much of the political architecture for the postwar world.  I agree that Copenhagen has become a focal point for the global community’s deepening concern about the climate crisis and how to confront it, as it should be, certainly, but I don’t think it’s going to be the Alpha and Omega.  As I’ve said here many times, we’re moving on a number of fronts to reduce the risks of catastrophic warming while at the same time creating both the motives and the means for a sustainable world economy, from renewables to “cool” farming to green building and more.

Still, Copenhagen is going to produce essential further tools for effecting change.  Some folks call the Kyoto Protocol a failure because it didn’t get greenhouse gases down enough.  What Kyoto did, most importantly, was it took us much farther along in setting up a way of getting at the GHGs.  We have an international system as a result of Kyoto that requires developed countries to reduce emissions and helps developing countries curb their excesses.  No, the US is not a signatory to Kyoto, but, given the radical shift in the political environment here in the last year, the US has become integral – even indispensible – to the process of effecting the next stage, the “Copenhagen Protocol” if you like.  I have documented much of the extraordinary shift in outlook and pursuit of progress from the US, domestically and internationally, here at the blog.  (See under Obama Administration for much of this, as well as Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate.)

We have vigorous international trading in GHGs as a result of Kyoto, and we have the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).  What will come out of COP 15 is a much deepened system for financing and for technology transfer for meeting the needs of mitigation and adaptation.  Deforestation, for one thing, is going to be finally established in the international framework as something that can and will be addressed.  Beyond forestry, the potential for agriculture to reduce its emissions – and even to become a vast and valuable sink for carbon dioxide – will be further advanced.

Here’s a most useful guide to COP 15 from the very good folks at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).  It has a “Who’s Who” and “What’s What” that will help you break down the thornier issues and the interests in play.  The “Financial Times” also has excellent, comprehensive coverage of the Copenhagen Climate Conference.  (Registration is required for many articles, but you can do it for free and quickly.)

Fiona Harvey, the indefatigable environmental reporter for the “FT,” had a story yesterday:  Sixty-five leaders to attend climate summit.  That shows considerable momentum.  Will Barack Obama be there?  He has said he would if his presence will help finalize things.  (My guess is he will go – and there’ll be some drama associated with it.)  Obama was, as you know, in China last week.  (China and the US now together account for 40% of the global GHG emissions.)  While there, as quoted in this AP story (via Yahoo News), he said that Copenhagen will not be “…a partial accord or a political declaration, but rather an accord that covers all of the issues in the negotiations, and one that has immediate operational effect.”  The PRC leader, Hu Jintao, was characteristically vague about what should come out of the conference.  This recent analysis from the “NY Times” notes:  “A European Union official, who asked that his name not be used so he could speak more freely, said that Mr. Obama was moving to use his executive authority to regulate greenhouse gases, but that India and China had delivered little beyond promises.”

In any event, it’s important to keep our eye on the progress of play, and China, India and the US are not the only players here.  Industrialized Nations Unveil Plans to Rein in Emissions is another story from the “NYT.”  UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer said “The list of what is on the table is rather long.”   (I will look at some of the specifics from these major countries – and some of them are impressive – in my next post.)

Todd Stern, the chief climate negotiator for the US, was asked when and if the US would commit to numbers.  “What we are looking at is whether we feel that we can put down a number that would be provisional in effect, contingent on getting our legislation done.  Our inclination is to try to do that, but we want to be smart about it.”  Another consistently excellent source on climate change, “The Guardian,” reported yesterday Barack Obama ready to offer target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.  The article says “…administration officials have been consulting international negotiators and key players on Capitol Hill about signing up to a provisional target…”  Stay tuned.

Yvo de Boer, along with other key operatives like the Danish Environment Minister, Connie Hedgard, has been working very hard to make Copenhagen a success.  In this AP story (via Google News), he is quoted “There is no doubt in my mind that it will yield a success.”  De Boer has three main goals for COP 15:  Industrialized countries “must record in black and white” their emission targets; “the scope and extent of developing country engagement” must be established; and how financial support for the countries least able to afford mitigation and adaptation will be provided must be made specific.

My (American) football pool requires me to calculate how a number of teams are going to perform each week.  I’ve been doing pretty darn well in the last couple of years so I have some confidence in my ability to make reasonably accurate predictions.  (In the summer of 2008, I also predicted that Obama’s election would be a landslide.)  My bet on Copenhagen is that it’s going to produce a lasting, robust, smart and eminently realizable set of agreements that will enhance our trajectory towards environmental sanity and economic prosperity.

 

Author

Bill Hewitt

Bill Hewitt has been an environmental activist and professional for nearly 25 years. He was deeply involved in the battle to curtail acid rain, and was also a Sierra Club leader in New York City. He spent 11 years in public affairs for the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation, and worked on environmental issues for two NYC mayoral campaigns and a presidential campaign. He is a writer and editor and is the principal of Hewitt Communications. He has an M.S. in international affairs, has taught political science at Pace University, and has graduate and continuing education classes on climate change, sustainability, and energy and the environment at The Center for Global Affairs at NYU. His book, "A Newer World - Politics, Money, Technology, and What’s Really Being Done to Solve the Climate Crisis," will be out from the University Press of New England in December.



Areas of Focus:
the policy, politics, science and economics of environmental protection, sustainability, energy and climate change

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