Do we really need to do a recap regarding Afghanistan for 2009? I mean, what really happened? The only story that I can recall is an American soldier wearing pink boxers.
Overview:
Welllllll, I guess there was more to 2009 in Afghanistan than that. Cue ‘We Didn’t Start the Fire‘: “Food scarcity, Drone attacks, marital rape law, Obama’s 17,000 more troops in Spring,…Presidential election delays, votes, fake votes, runoffs, and Karzai’s 2nd term,.(catch your breath)..Manas Air Base taken away, given back, Bagram prison blues,….Gen McChrystal in, McKiernan out, and a new counterinsurgency strategy to boot,…Falling domestic approval of US presence, Democrats wavering, and Obama goes for super (short?) surge,….
Did that work at all? Anyways, it was a tumultuous 12 months for Afghans and Americans, mainly Afghans, and it is set up to be a rocky 2010. One can hope that President Karzai’s government and the troop surge can provide a modicum of stability through well-thought policies and effective implementation. There is no doubt that in 10,20,30 years, history will show the importance of 2009 for the country of Afghanistan and the greater region.
Person of the Year:
It would be nice to say an Afghan citizen here (even if it’s Karzai), but President Obama is the winner. He staked a large part of his presidential campaign on fixing a broken conflict in Afghanistan and has since struggled with the difficult task of actually trying to do so. Like or not, the Obama administration had a large shadow over the Afghan presidential election and the President’s appointment of Richard Holbrooke as AfPak envoy also made waves. Of course, the most substantial move made by Obama was his 2 strategy roll outs and their accompanying nearly 50,000 more American troops added into the conflict. The choice between a small footprint counterterrorism strategy and the chosen big footprint counterinsurgency strategy will effect Afghanistan’s future for years to come. Not to mention what happens in the next few years regarding a withdrawal timeline for these surge troops.
The Most Unexpected Event:
For me, it has to be Kyrgyzstan’s demand that all American forces leave the Manas air base in the spring. The US has been using the base for years and was thought to have good relations with President Bakiyev’s Kyrg government, but apparently a multi-billion dollar loan from Moscow convinced it otherwise. Thankfully, at the last minute, a deal was struck to keep non-lethal American goods flowing through the base, but of course at a higher rent.
What to Watch for in 2010:
Like the overview, I could go on for awhile here (maybe with another song!), but let’s just focus on few key issues, or more accurately, the answers to these questions: How fast and effectively can McChrystal get the surge troops in place? Will the surge show progress within the first year? What kinds? Will Karzai show he has changed his ways or will it be obvious rather shortly that he is still a mostly ineffective, corrupt leader in a very difficult governing situation? Will the European partners in NATO provide real resources, both money and soldiers, to help Obama/McChrystal’s surge strategy? Will a significant amount of insurgents chose to flip sides? Can the Karzai government show progress in providing social services to the Afghan people not in Kabul? Will Americans support of the war effort maintain itself at high enough levels (above 50%)? Will certain Democrats in congress attempt to seriously curtail the administration’s escalation plans? Will Republicans stand by the President’s surge decision for the long haul?
2010, it’s gonna be a ride!
