Overview:
2009 was the year of rising powers. Everyone – experts, analysts, leaders, and the media – is talking about the dawn of a new world order as the global balance of power begins to reflect the economic rise of China, India, Brazil, and others. Several rising powers proved surprisingly resilient during the financial crisis and stepped up on the international stage. And while the decline of the world’s sole superpower is often overstated, the rise of the rest is undeniable.
Person of the Year:
He’s not the most powerful man on earth for no reason. President Obama is from the hegemon of today rather than the giants of tomorrow, but he clearly is the man of the hour. While helping to prevent a depression at home and economic collapse around the world, Obama showed a new face of American engagement. He reached out to Russia, Iran, Asia, and the Islamic world. It’s too early to tell what the results will be – and if US actions will avert the long-term fall of the great power – but Obama has changed the game.
Most Unexpected Event:
Iran may not be a rising power, but it’s the story of the year. The crackdown following this summer’s disputed elections and the revelation of an illicit nuclear facility have unexpectedly put Tehran on its heels and unified the international community against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. China and Russia are closer than ever to agreeing to tough international sanctions, but the cooperation with the West could soon be lost. The response to Iran will signal how the world will answer problems moving forward.
What to Watch for in 2010:
It’s all about the money. 2010 could easily wind up as the year of rising powers (again) depending on the how the world emerges from the great recession. Will the recovery be sustainable and who will come out on top?
In many ways the answers will shape how the world responds to transnational threats. War and conflict, nuclear proliferation, climate change, and the global economic recovery (at least we hope so), will dominate the international agenda. Cooperation between old and rising powers will be essential for effectively tackling issues of global concern. And while the United States will still need to lead, rising powers must assume their growing responsibility.
This post was written by the bloggers of Rising Powers.
