Reflections of a retired Baby Boomer
Topic: Year in Review
Overview:
Overall defense issues played out pretty much as expected in 2009. In a January 27, 2009 testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates identified Afghanistan as the greatest military challenge and stated “we have not had enough troops to provide a baseline level of security in some of the most dangerous areas – a vacuum that increasingly has been filled by the Taliban. That is why the U.S. is considering an increase in our military presence, in conjunction with a dramatic increase in the size of the Afghan security forces.” Back in January, Gates also said because of the “porous border” between Pakistan and Afghanistan it was “impossible” to separate the problems.
President Obama’s decision to add an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan to my mind validates Gate’s analysis of the threat as well as his proposed solution to reverse the negative trends of the ongoing conflict. Considering the large number of critics saying the greatly reduced Al Qaeda threat in Afghanistan no longer required a large U.S. military presence and calling for a refocus of our efforts or either a total withdrawal or downsizing of forces, this was no small thing.
Time will tell if this new strategy will work but it is worth noting that there was also much criticism at the start of the Iraqi surge strategy. The challenge of trying to analyze ongoing military strategies by the public and those media not well connected or embedded with the troops is we don’t have the complete picture. The reality of how wars are fought requires the military to keep the details of exactly how the strategy will be executed secret. How can you execute a strategy successfully if you give all the details away?
During the testimony, Gates also identified what he referred to as the “toxic mix of rogue nations, terrorist groups, and nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons”. North Korea and Iran were at the top of his list in this regard. There’s not been much progress with either country in talks on their nuclear programs. Both remain defiant and in a show of old fashioned saber rattling; conducted missile tests during the year. North Korea fired two ballistic missiles on the July 2 and 7more on July 4th. On December 16, Iran test fired, the Sajjil-2, the latest variant in their ongoing missile development program.
One can debate how effective these missiles are versus current U.S. and allied anti- missile defense; but, the threat they pose cannot be ignored. Let’s not forget how effective Iraq’s Scud weapons were during the first Gulf War in creating hate, discontent and fear in the region. I once heard an expression called “the golden BB”. For you younger readers, according to the Wikipedia definition, BB guns are a type of air gun designed to shoot projectiles which are named BBs after the birdshot pellet of approximately the same size.” The guns were introduced in 1938 and are apparently still being produced today. The concept of the Golden BB is that in today’s media saturated world, you’re not just fighting on the battle fields for military objectives but also fighting on a public stage to win public opinion. The definition of a successful military engagement in the public can differ from that of a military strategist typically focused on winning an entire war and not just one military engagement. In today’s environment, it doesn’t take overwhelming military force to win a battle in the eyes of world opinion. Shoot down a U.S. Aircraft or drone, blow up a hotel, successfully launch a missile and you can declare a military success. An opponent can’t say they’ve won the war but they can say stuff like they will succeed eventually.
Other areas of concern mentioned by Gate’s in his January testimony were a resurgent Russian military, China, and Cyber warfare. He reminded the senators that the “Russian invasion of Georgia last year was a reminder that the Russian military is a force to be reckoned with in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.” There were no major incidents between the U.S. and Russian military during the year but there were a few incidents that reminded us the Russian military may not be up to the standards and capabilities of the Cold War days but can still show a little flash now and then.
In August, the Russian defense ministry confirmed that two Akula Class attack submarines were patrolling off the U.S. East Coast. According to a report in Stratfor this was the first time in over a decade this type of activity has been seen. In March, CNN.com reported two Russian IL-38 maritime patrol aircraft over flew the aircraft carrier USS Stennis in the Sea of Japan and the next day two TU-95 Russian long range Bombers over flew the USS Blue Ridge which was also operating in the Sea of Japan. In both instances the Russian aircraft were intercepted by U.S. fighters but it was significant in that this was the first time in over a year Russian aircraft had over flown a U.S. Navy ship. The report also indicated “Russian long-range flights skirting U.S. or other nation’s boundaries have also been common over the last year”.
I don’t believe this is a major issue, simply Russia reminding the U.S. and its NATO allies their military still has some strong teeth and can bite us if they want to. In 2007, then President Vladimir Putin announced he was resuming the Soviet era practice of long range military aircraft flights. According to a BBC report, Putin stated “In 1992, Russia unilaterally ended flights by its strategic aircraft to distant military patrol areas. Unfortunately, our example was not followed by everyone…Flights by other countries’ strategic aircraft continue and this creates problems for ensuring the security of the Russian federation”.
There were no major military conflicts with China but as expected they continued modernization of all of their armed forces to include growing capabilities in cyberspace. In his January testimony Gates warned the committee that “potential adversaries operating in cyberspace can inflict serious damage to DoD’s vast information grid”. Just this past week, there were reports that militants in Iraq had been able to hack into the video feeds from the Predator UAV using easily available cheap technology. In the first 6 months of 2009 there were 43,785 malicious attacks against DoD networks. Projecting out to the end of the year we’re looking at a 60 percent increase compared to 2008.
Person of the Year:
The men and woman assigned to United States Central Command who continued to give their all in Iraq and Afghanistan. The politicians pontificated, the media talked in sound bites but these men and woman soldiered on.
Most Unexpected Event:
Fort Hood Massacre. Since 9/11 we have lived with the knowledge that another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil is possible. The investigation into the motive of the shooter is ongoing; but early reports suggest his actions might have been motivated by sympathy with Al Qaeda. If this is found to be the case, it’s particularly painful to realize that a member of the military family can commit such atrocities against his fellow comrades.
In recent testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, a Rand Corporation official noted that one third of homegrown terrorists plots discovered since 9/11 happened in 2009. Danny Coulson, a Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI, said a majority of the suspects in these cases had no direct link to terrorist organizations. The implication being that makes them harder to detect.
What to Watch For in 2010
Whether Afghanistan “surge” is successful. How do we measure that success?
Pakistan and how it deals with Al Qaeda, Taliban and other insurgent groups operating in their border region.
Al Qaeda
“Homegrown” Terrorists
Iran and North Korea and their nuclear programs.
Iraq and whether positive trends keep going or start to reverse.
WMD proliferation.
Cyberspace challenges
Russian military developments
Chinese military activities
Golden BB
