A few weeks ago, advocates for a prisoner swap with Hamas seemed optimistic that abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit would be reunited with his family. As the weeks drag on and the media reports apparent Israeli government reluctance on the swap, the prospects of a prisoner exchange by the end of the year continues to dim.
The Israeli cabinet has held urgent meetings to discuss a prisoner swap, with officials in the intel-military establishment arguing both sides of the debate. The cabinet met today and will resume debate tomorrow morning. Similarly, Shalit’s parents are expected to meet Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu tomorrow, although the details of that expected meeting have not been released. There are some indications that Hamas submitted a “final” offer to Israel, but more negotiations could result in further moderation of the Hamas proposal.
Hamas also has vested interest in prisoner swap: to garner favor among Palestinians ahead of potential elections next year, to bolster the prospects of negotiations with the international community, and to potentially secure the release of Marwan Barghouti (a popular former Palestinian official held in Israeli prison for aiding in terrorist activities).
Some reports indicate the debate hinges on as little as ten prisoners “with blood on their hands.” Israel has repeatedly insisted that certain prisoners would be banished from Israel and the territories. Hamas has continued to counter that released prisoners should be reunited with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip or West Bank.
One report suggests that both the Egyptian and U.S. governments are urging Israel to reject the deal. U.S. Special Envoy George Mitchell, under direction from President Barack Obama, reportedly spoke with the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of Defense to encourage a rejection of the trade. Similarly, Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman -regarding by some as the likely successor to President Hosni Mubarak- traveled to Jerusalem today to encourage the Israeli government to turn down Hamas’ offer. If reported accurately, this visit raises signifcant concern, particularly because Mubarak largely committed himself to securing Shalit’s release.
The Israeli government’s decision, which could come as early (but likely not) as tomorrow morning, may pave the way to end this three-year plus saga with the return of Shalit to Israel or, by rejecting the trade, nearly destroy hopes that Shalit will begin the new year alongside his family.
