As the negotiations in Copenhagen reminded us, scientific evidence demonstrates that the process of climatic change is now more concentrated and more threatening. As a result, human displacement due to environmental change remains an increasing concern in the 21st century. Populations are forced to move due to fast-paced events like hurricanes, slower processes like desertification, or a combination of the two (e.g. major once-a-century floods that now occur every 10 years).
In a globalized world, national security is also linked to migration. The large-scale movement of people may, for example, worsen existing violence if migrants are co-opted by non-state actors, or push already weak states to the brink of collapse. The need to assist and help rebuild the lives of thousands displaced by climate will put an increasing strain on international aid agencies and the more developed countries that provide funding.
To understand the magnitude/scale of the issue, consider the number of people involved. The International Organization for Migration (IOM), the international agency with a mandate to focus on the movement of people, recently reported that there were 20 million persons displaced for environmental reasons in 2008. This can be compared to the entire forcibly displaced population that the UN High Commissioner for Refugees protects; there are now 34.4 million refugees, internally-displaced and stateless persons.
The IOM’s report estimates that by 2050 there could be between 25 million and 1 billion persons displaced for environmental reasons, although a number around 200 million is more likely. This would potentially transform the migration landscape.
However, it is also important to understand how these numbers are calculated. It is projected that there will be approximately 9 billion people in the world in 2050. Does the IOM estimate mean that one in every nine persons will be an environmental migrant? Or, does it include the re-counting of persons each year? (25 million x 40 years = 1 billion persons).
The debate over climate often focuses on predictions and modeling, and it is important to get the numbers right so that we can accurately understand the implications of human interaction with the environment. While admittedly it is difficult to project climate-change induced migration, clearly it does not hurt to focus attention on this very personal impact of environmental change. Millions will be forced from their homes. Now what will we do about it?
