All the usual caveats about uncertainty assumed, here are 7 climate and energy trends we’re already seeing, that will pick up speed in to 2010:
1. We’ll get better at making reasonable distinctions between solutions that are politically, versus scientifically, versus economically possible. The current debate over whether carbon emissions should be reduced to 450 ppm (parts per million) or 350 ppm is just one example.
2. As multilateral agreements become increasingly obsolete, we’ll look less to national leaders for solutions and more to smaller, regional initiatives, large-scale NGO projects and corporate initiatives.
3. There will be an onus on the science community to publish good ideas quickly and online. Audiences will be forgiving of small mistakes and flawed ideas that are openly corrected and evolving. Researchers able to dance the line that divides transparency and professionalism will win.
4. Investors around the world will continue to accelerate their support for advanced low carbon technologies and green building designs. In 2009, the clean tech sector, for the first time, received more private venture capital than any other sector, including software. With greater financial support, deployment will unfold more rapidly than in the past decade.
5. With more than $5.6 billion in venture-capital investment going to clean-tech firms in 2009, governments can expect a lot more lobbying participation from VC groups who now carry a vested interest in the outcome of climate legislation and regulations.
6. Smart grid technology will further energy efficiencies and reduce carbon consumption faster than any single source of alternative energy.
7. As developing countries – especially the BRICs – continue their steady economic growth, we’ll see further evidence that the best way to turn these countries “green” is by encouraging, well – more steady economic growth.
