Another missed-during-holiday-hiatus story worth looking at comes from ArmsControlWonk. Peruse the results of a 2005 survey of nonproliferation experts:
More than 78% of respondents agreed that one or two new nations would acquire nuclear weapons during the next five years. More than 89% agreed that between one and three new nuclear nations would emerge during this period.
Also:
Almost 60 percent of respondents judged the risk of a nuclear attack during the next five years to be at least 10%. Almost a third of respondents thought the risk was 20% or more. Nine experts thought the risk was at least 50%.
And:
The group judged a major biological attack to be slightly more likely than a nuclear attack. More than half of respondents saw the risk of a biological attack in the next five years as between 10% and 30%. Three respondents thought the risk was zero, while three others saw the risk as above 75%.
Michael Krepon, the post’s author, jocularly concludes that the lesson we can draw from this survey is that “2010 will be a very gruesome year.”
