The onset of closer relations between Bangladesh and India has set off quite a bit of celebratory humming in the blogosphere concerned with South Asia–some of it distinctly emanating from my neck of the woods. Though the new developments are promising, nevertheless we may be calling the game too soon. Whatever the merits of the new agreements and though some of the agreements do spell out contingency plans–principally the agreement to share electricity–I’ve seen nothing that admits to costs borne if one or another of these agreements should fall.
And that’s the issue: if it is costless for any party to enter into an agreement, then any one party can defect from that accord as long as any other state of the world obtains a better outcome for that party. Indeed, though the visit has been wildly successful, already some of the difficult negotiations have fallen off the track. The difficult talks on the water sharing deal on Teesta River that runs through India and Bangladesh fell apart at the secretary level. Without mutual costs borne, it is not clear how long these deals will be something more than signed documents.
Still, attention must be paid to the milestones already reached.
