Speculation surrounds the prospects for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to resume in the near future. Both sides have expressed their desire to jump-start high-level talks, although both parties still seem to find excuses for failing to meet.
One perspective points out that negotiations would only improve the Israeli position and that the Palestinians have nothing to gain. Mordechai Kedar writes:
The perception that negotiations are not worthwhile and that if entered into they will not yield significant achievements has been spreading of late among Palestinian intellectuals. Again and again, the one-state alternative is broached. This solution seeks to perpetuate the existing situation by means of Palestinian withdrawal from the concept of an independent state, coupled with the demand for citizenship and voting rights in a single state.
Let demography win: Palestinian birth rates would rise and there might be a certain return of refugees, as against widespread Jewish emigration reflecting Jewish refusal to live in a bi-national state that comprises a large proportion of Arabs. Thus, through demographic changes, the single state would within a few years become a Palestinian state stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. So why should Palestinians enter into negotiations over a state in only part of the land? This approach is supported by a growing number of Israelis who fear that even a final status agreement won’t end the conflict because many Palestinians here and abroad would not suffice with a Palestinian state only in the West Bank and Gaza.
Therefore, I don’t think serious negotiations will be resumed in the near future. There might be a photo-op or two, primarily for the White House picture album–but little more.
However, there’s an important point that requires clarification. At this point, Arab birth rates are higher than Israeli birth rates. However, the Arab birth rates are dropping and the Israeli rate, particularly because of the religious community, is on the rise. The gap is narrowing and the demographic existential threat may not be dangerous after all.
The reason Palestinians may not need to negotiate (although I think they do and should) is if the residents of the West Bank can establish a de facto state within the next few years vis-a-vis the Fayyad plan. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has recently advocated for the development of institutions within the territories that would effectively establish an independent state. The creation of sovereign and effective institutions would force Israel to concede territory and make compromises. Besides, an efficient security apparatus would suppress terror activity and provide Israel with security.
The Palestinians have a lot to gain from negotiations. The Fayyad plan may not work and there should be a proactive approach to the peace process that would establish a two-state solution in the near term to ensure prosperity on both sides of the green line.
