The Disagreement About the 2007 NIE

There is apparently a disagreement within the U.S. government about the validity of the CIA’s 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE).  The key bullet points of the NIE, found here, were:

• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.

The Obama administration expressed doubts about the NIE’s validity as early as February 2009.  And earlier this month the New York Times reported:

Mr. Obama’s top advisers say they no longer believe the key finding of a much disputed National Intelligence Estimate about Iran, published a year before President George W. Bush left office, which said that Iranian scientists ended all work on designing a nuclear warhead in late 2003.

After reviewing new documents that have leaked out of Iran and debriefing defectors lured to the West, Mr. Obama’s advisers say they believe the work on weapons design is continuing on a smaller scale — the same assessment reached by Britain, France, Germany and Israel…

The administration’s current view of Iran’s nuclear program was provided by six senior administration officials advising Mr. Obama on his strategy, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the subject. The administration’s review of Iran’s program, which they said was based on intelligence reports, information from allies, and their own analysis, did not amount to a new formal intelligence assessment.

Then last week, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Chief Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess expressed agreement with the NIE.  According to the news report he said:

“The bottom line assessments of the [National Intelligence Estimate] still hold true… We have not seen indication that the government has made the decision to move ahead with the program. But the fact still remains that we don’t know what we don’t know.”

(h/t Juan Cole)

I should also note that both the U.S. and Iran are violating international law regarding this issue.  Iran continues to enrich uranium in violation of UN Security Council resolutions demanding that Iran cease.  The U.S. is running a $400 million covert operation to destabilize the Iranian regime and to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program, in violation of the 1981 Algiers Accords, in which “The United States pledges that it is and from now on will be the policy of the United States not to intervene, directly or indirectly, politically or militarily, in Iran’s internal affairs.”