Topic: Just a Typical Week in the World of Defense Issues
Last week was interesting but pretty typical for those involved with monitoring national security issues. Osama Bin Laden crawled out from under whatever rock he’s been hiding under and claimed responsibility for the failed attack on Flight 253 on Christmas Day. While speaking at a seminar, South Korea’s Defense Minister stated if there was a clear indication North Korea was preparing to launch a nuclear strike, South Korea would immediately launch an attack on the North. The minister had made similar comments in 2008 while chairman of the South’s joint chief of staff. This policy is referred to by defense analysts as the doctrine of Launch on Tactical Warning (LOTW). In response North Korea stated: “Our revolutionary armed forces will regard the scenario for ‘pre-emptive strike, as an open declaration of war”.
In other activity, both Great Britain and India raised their terror alert. Britain raised its alert level to “severe” the second highest level. Severe means the government thinks a terrorist attack is considered likely. The highest level is critical which means the government thinks an attack is imminent. India placed its airports and national carriers on high security alert and according to a report appearing in Nightwatch is “based on intelligence reports that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LT) has acquired 50 paragliding kits and is plotting to hijack an Indian plane.” The Nightwatch report goes on to state “Indian Home Ministry sources said they had received ‘credible intelligence’ that LT operatives were receiving training in paragliding allegedly with the help of Pakistani forces.”
As if the week couldn’t get more interesting on January 20th, Poland announced they were going to place the Patriot Missiles scheduled to arrive in April at Morag, a military base on the Baltic Sea Coast located just 60 miles from the Russian’s Baltic Fleet headquarters at Kaliningrad. Russia’s response so far has been what I call “subdued”. Last Thursday they indicated they had no plan to increase the strength of their Baltic Fleet in response and any moves to rearm and modernize Russia’s Navy would take place within the framework of changes already announced.
Looking at the terrorism issues first, I find it interesting that Bin Laden is taking credit for something that failed. This falls under the Golden BB category; a relatively small tactical incident that has broad strategic implications. It may have been a failed attempt but gained widespread coverage in the world media and panicked many in the public; exactly what it was designed to do. The attempt was a tactical failure but a strategic success; albeit a small one. To put this incident in perspective, according to a report in the New York Times, last year there were 14,000 murders in the U.S. Of those 14,000 only 14 was the result of alleged jihadist attacks; one at a military recruiting office in Arkansas and the 13 killed at Fort Hood. To my mind it drives home the fact that Bin Laden has been unable to launch a successful mass attack since 9/11. That’s very little comfort to friends and family of those that have been killed but it does show the U.S. is still winning the war on terrorism. I’m guessing the raised security alerts in Britain and India are the result of concerns Al Qaida will attempt to follow up it Christmas day attacks with others, a quite reasonable assumption.
As to the Korea situation, the two nations never signed a peace treaty and as a result have technically remained in a state of war. I put this incident in the “diplomatic trash talk” category. Both sides are speaking their truths but don’t plan to actually do anything…at the moment. Seoul, South Korea’s capital is within range of the North’s artillery so if the North were so inclined they would not have to resort to nuclear weapons to ruin the South’s day.
As for Poland, that situation bears watching. I agree with Stratfor’s assessment that since Poland “will only receive four to eight missiles – only a fraction of those required for a single Patriot fire unit…- the deployment is not of an operational defensive battery …is likely for training purposes.” However, I believe this falls in the Golden BB category. Considering Russia’s ongoing sensitivity to NATO encroachment on the former Soviet Union’s geographic region of interests this could be a crisis flashpoint in the coming months. I don’t think Russia would launch a full scale attack like they did with the Georgian Republic, but we could see something like the 2007 computer attack on Estonia which paralyzed that governments internet and was largely suspected to have been conducted by Russia. According to one report at least one cyber attack may have already happened. In September of last year an unsuccessful attack on Polish government systems appeared to originate in Russia. Whether it was government sponsored or not is unknown. In any event, it will be interesting to track this situation. As always, my views are my own.
