Over the weekend several newspapers ran articles on U.S. efforts to accelerate deployment of missile defenses in the Persian Gulf region. According to the New York Times, the U.S. is providing 2 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) batteries each to Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman. The U.S. is also maintaining a constant presence in the Gulf of an Aegis Cruiser equipped with the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3). The SM-3 is designed to shoot down short to intermediate range ballistic missile threats.
The timing of the release of the information to the public indicates this is a not so subtle warning to Iran that the stakes are being raised and although the U.S. may be having problems getting international agreement on implementing UN sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program; some of Iran’s neighbors by accepting Patriot missiles are saying yes we consider you a threat and are not going to stand by and turn the balance of power in the region over to you. This is probably also meant to reassure Israel who according to a report in Stratfor stated they regard February “as the decisive month for sanctions”.
Personally I don’t think this will impact Iran’s nuclear program. Militarily the most significant part of these recent moves is publicly highlighting increasing bilateral agreements aimed at countering Iran between the U.S. and Persian Gulf countries. In a recent talk at the Institute for the Study of War, the U.S. Central Command Commander, General Petraeus when discussing bilateral relations in the region stated: “The best recruiting officer for that effort has been Iranian President Ahmadinejad, his rhetoric, his actions, the continued missile program development, the nuclear program…”
The increased military assets are defensive in nature and only aimed at shooting down Iranian missiles not launching an offensive strike. Of note, the U.S. maintains a robust offensive naval presence in the Gulf that could at any point in time ruin Iran’s day. This is nothing new. The U.S. has maintained a near continuous aircraft carrier presence in the Gulf since the first Gulf War and has had a naval base in the region in some form since 1949. Fifth Fleet Headquarters is located in the island nation of Bahrain.
Currently the USS Eisenhower Strike Group is in the Persian Gulf having recently relieved the USS Nimitz Strike group.
The U.S. currently has its hands full military with the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. I don’t see the U.S. launching any overt military action against Iran any time soon unless President Ahmadinejad decides to pull a “Galtieri”. In the early ‘80’s, General Galtieri had been President of Argentina. Early in his tenure, the economy was bad and his popularity was at an all time low. In 1982 he invaded the lightly defended British Falkland Islands. Argentina and Britain had been at odds over the sovereignty of the islands for some time; but, many analysts felt the timing of Argentina’s attack was meant to divert public attention away from domestic issues.
I’ve not seen much recent information on domestic protests of the Iranian election but it wouldn’t be totally beyond the realm of possibility for Ahmadinejad to try to divert public attention from internal issues to foreign ones. I don’t see it happening …but stranger things have happened.
