Last week I blogged about the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR); I thought this week I’d take a look at the Intelligence Community’s annual threat assessment. The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dennis Blair presented the report before Congress on February 2. I found it interesting that in spite of the spotlight focused on the intelligence community; this event received very little media coverage. Considering the fact that our national security policy and related defense budget is driven by intelligence analysis of the threats, this is somewhat disturbing.
The only reporting I can recall being done by the media on the assessment concerned Mr. Blair’s response to a question posed by Senator Dianne Feinstein, chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee on the possibility of an attempted terrorist attack on the U.S. in the next few months. Mr. Blair indicated he believed it was a certain priority. I’ve seen very little reporting on the rest of the contents of the report.
I also wonder how much attention Congress paid. According to a report in the New York Times, “the senators seemed more interested in debating one another than in hearing testimony…Midway through the hearing partisan bickering broke out about whether terrorist suspects ought to be tried in civilian courts and whether the man charged as the Dec. 25 bomber should have been given Miranda rights that could protect him against self-incrimination”.
I think people involved in national security to include not only those who work in government and the media; but also people who teach and study the issue need to pay very close attention to these annual threat assessments. Before the position of DNI was established in the aftermath of 9/11, the CIA Director delivered the annual threat assessments to Congress. For at least two years prior to 9/11, the CIA identified Al Qaeda as the number one threat to U.S. security; yet many in the media and public were unfamiliar with the group until 9/11.
These annual assessments are meant to educate Congress and the public and are an open window designed to give insight into what areas the intelligence community are focusing on. I will now get off of my soap box and go over what jumped out at me from the 47 page report.
I was pleased to see first on Mr. Blair’s list was cyber warfare and the possibility of a catastrophic attack on our critical infrastructure. Most people are aware of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan but are not aware we are also engaged in a war in cyberspace and have been for some time. About a month ago, I attended a military conference on cyberspace. The speakers said every day Department of Defense networks faced millions of cyber incidents per day. In another conference held in Hawaii in November, the commander of the Navy’s Third Fleet, Vice Adm. Richard Hunt stated: “There is no warfare area more important than cyber”. Other military leaders are calling cyberspace the battlefield of the 21st century.
It’s not just the military that is experiencing cyber attacks. The FBI has reported investigating more than 200 cases of cyber fraud in 2008 and 2009 and according to a report in USA Today “the cyber robbers executed fraudulent transfers totaling about $100 million – and successfully made off with $40 million”.
In the threat assessment, Mr. Blair emphasized the far reaching impact of the cyber threat stating the “national security of the United States, our economic prosperity, and the daily functioning of our government are dependent on a dynamic public and private information infrastructure, which includes telecommunications, computer networks and systems and the information residing within.”
Blair stated the threat comes from “nation states, terrorist networks, organized criminal groups, individuals, and other cyber actors”. At the conference I attended, one of the speakers stated over 4,000 terrorist groups operate on the internet.
Other topics in the report were covered in the following order:
– The Changing Treat to the Global Economy
– Terrorists Under Pressure; Terrorist Threat to Homeland Remains
– The Growing Proliferation Threat
– Afghanistan
– Pakistan
– India
– Mixed Outlook Middle East
– China’s Continuing Transformation
– Outlook for Russia
– Latin America Stable, but Challenged by Crime and Populism
– Continued Instability in Africa
– Mass Killings
– Potential Flashpoints in Eurasia and Balkans
– Regional Impacts of Climate Change
– Strategic Health Challenges and Threats
– Significant State and Non-State Intelligence Threats
– Growing Threat from International Organized Crime
I’ll go over more of the highlights in next week’s blog. I did say this was a 47 page report. As always my views are my own.
