The Dutch Christian-Democrat, Christian Union, and Labor Party coalition-led government has collapsed and it seems likely that a national election is in the offing. What does this has to with Afghanistan? Well, one of the major reasons for the collapse of the Parliamentary partnership was the Netherlands troop presence in Afghanistan’s volatile southern Uruzgan province. The Christian Democrats, led by Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, tried to placate a request by NATO for a one year extension of the nearly 2,000 Dutch troops serving in Afghanistan since 2006, but a deal was unable to be arranged as the Labor Party, citing poll numbers showing the unpopularity of the Dutch troop presence, refused to extend the mission beyond August 2010. It seems that many in the Dutch public not only felt that troop’s efforts in Afghanistan were not worth the human and financial costs, but were also deeply bothered by what they felt were a lack of commitment by NATO’s more powerful members, specifically Germany.
The United States and NATO should have some concern that this move may provide a catalyst, or opening, for other European NATO partners, who are facing domestic discontent about this issue, to plan their own escape. This at the same time as the Obama administration is not only sending 30,000 more American soldiers into the fight, but also requesting an adjoining 10,000 from its NATO partners. This number was already going to be difficult to reach, and may now be impossible. This of course highlights the difficulties of holding a wide-ranging alliance like NATO together, as all its members have their own domestic political interests, that as we know, do not always align with the alliances’ best interests.
Julian Lindley-French, professor of defense strategy at the Netherlands Defense Academy, voices her concern about the implications of the Dutch government’s collapse:
“If the Dutch go, which is the implication of all this, that could open the floodgates for other Europeans to say, ‘The Dutch are going, we can go, too.’ The implications are that the U.S. and the British are going to take on more of the load.”
The Obama administration and NATO High Command will have their work cut out for them (as if they didn’t already) to keep this a Dutch affair. Though I don’t foresee any real exodus of European forces from Afghanistan following this event, it sure doesn’t breed confidence in the long term outlook of the commitment of NATO’s European partners. The Dutch have fought in a Taliban stronghold for going on 4 years now and they will be difficult to replace.
