Just as quickly as Japan watchers fell silent on Futenma, they’ve picked it back up. This is nothing if not expected: it wasn’t until PM Yukio Hatoyama and his party offered up a policy proposal for the protracted re-negotiations that much else could be said on the topic. They promised an answer by May, and so the cottage industry of Futenma commentary temporarily closed shop.
Well, according to the deluge of coverage from the Japanese dailies, it appears that we will see a DPJ proposal on Futenma much earlier than expected, with today’s Yomiuri reporting that Mr. Hatoyama will hash out a policy proposal within the month. This sudden movement on Futenma comes sooner than expected, and signals to some analysts that Japanese policymakers have cooked up a practicable compromise.
Martin Fackler of the New York Times seems to be among them. As he bouyantly describes in today’s NYT,
“The new air station would be built in Camp Schwab, an existing Marine base near the tiny fishing village of Henoko, the site agreed to in the 2006 plan…the plan would reduce the number of runways to one from two. The single runway could also be smaller, with the government considering two options: one for a runway of 1,640 feet, to be used only by helicopters, or a runway of nearly a mile that could also accommodate some fixed-wing aircraft. The new base would also be built entirely on land, avoiding the use of landfill, which was part of the original plan.”
Based primarily on hearsay from meetings this past week between high-level American diplomats and top DPJ brass, Fackler’s report smacks of perceived progress, with little analysis (to wit: one sentence) devoted to the political realities that make much of this plan unreasonable. To be sure, he fails to adequately describe the dire domestic political squabbles that are certain to hinder, if not stymie, certain aspects of this plan. And, notably, he mentions nothing of the Okinawans themselves.
Fortunately, Dr. William Brooks is blogging at The Point. In his most recent post, he dutifully dissects the infighting at DPJ headquarters, and puts this plan into a more realistic perspective. His assessment isnt so cheerful:
“The political infighting in the coalition has dragged on for months. Hatoyama hopes to rely on the advice of the three-party panel to settle the Futenma issue by May. But every time the team seems to be inching toward a compromise, the anti-base Social Democratic Party stomps out.”
His assessment of the opposition that will come from the residents and activists of Okinawa – what is sure to be nothing short of staunch – is relegated to one paragraph. This aspect certainly deserves more analysis, and I hope be pick it up here.
Anyone that took a deep breath after reading Fackler’s report would be apt to read Dr. Brooks’ here…and then pour a drink.
Dr. Brooks offers up other views in this video:
(H/t to The Point)
