Official results for the Iraqi elections were announced, and Former prime minister Ayad Allawi’s secular Shia Iraqiya party has won a majority by two seats. However, just like the American elections of 2000, no clear winner and prime minister can be determined at this time. Current prime minister Al-Maliki has vowed to ask for a recount of the vote, and constitutionally he has the right to do so within three days of the elections. Since Allawi’s party has won only 91 of the 168 votes he needs to successfully build a ruling coalition it is not at all certain that he will be able to do so in the 30 days allotted time.
Two major players have emerged that could potentially play a decisive roll in who leads the coalition, the Kurdish parties with 43 seats and Shiite Iraqi National Alliance with 70 seats. These groups will most likely be challenging to coax into a coalition with Allawi’s party because his supporters were mostly religious Sunnis in provinces outside Baghdad. If Allawi is unable to form a stable coalition the Iraqi President then gets to choose the next candidate who will attempt to form a coalition and of course the second choice will be Al-Maliki. Which would in turn give rise to a lot of anger and disappointment among nationalist Iraqis and others who would feel robbed of the seat of power.
Another development that needs to be watched closely in the coming days would be a rise in violence. Al-Maliki already hinted that violence could erupt should there not be a recount of the votes. In addition, some violence has already ensued as reports of a bomb at the house of a prominent Sunni political figure show. The bomb blast killed 5 and injured 26 people. In a seperate incident Sunni leader Khalil Al-Obadia was killed by sniper fire.
Violence is nothing new during the after-election coalition building period in Iraq. In 2005 much violence and bloodshed erupted while Al-Maliki struggled to form his coalition.
