Last week Patrick Vilbert of the FPA Lebanon blog wrote a great post outlining the history and possible future of the UN Security Council-established investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri. If any of the likely suspects are implicated, there could be seriously negative effects for the region. Vilbert writes:
In 2009, an article in the German daily Der Speigel claimed that the tribunal was actually going to name Hizballah as the prime suspect. If this were true, the finding could undo much of the healing that has taken place since the end of the Civil War by making it much harder for the Hariri-led government to do business with the minority opposition (led by Hizballah). Nobody wants this. Also, it is unlikely that Hizballah leaders organized the hit, as Rafik Hariri posed no threat to them. Many analysts have attributed “the leak” of this information to someone trying to influence the June 8 parliamentary elections by dragging Hizballah through the mud just before they were about to take place.
The real danger is what happens if Syria is named in the investigation, particularly if President Bashar Assad himself is connected. The result could tear open old wounds and possibly ignite fresh public anger at Syria. Depending on how it is handled by both parties, the tensions created between them could escalate to a level that would destabilize Lebanon, undoing all the progress that has been made.
Interesting how damaging the quest for justice can sometimes be. This is why East Timor, Indonesia, and the United States decline such endeavors.
