After taking a close look at the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), my conclusion is it’s neither the dramatic change in strategy hoped for from Obama supporters nor does it represent a significant weakening of U.S. national defense. The only change I saw was for the first time, the U.S. has said it would not use nuclear weapons first IF and that’s a big IF a nation was a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and “in compliance with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations.” What’s left unsaid is who will determine noncompliance? My guess is, the U.S. That tells me, we are still free to do the first use thing if we feel the situation warrants it.
Here’s a brief summary of the NPR compiled from Department of Defense (DoD) produced background paper and fact sheets. The NPR was looked at 7 elements:
– Role of nuclear forces in U.S. military strategy, planning and programming;
– Objectives for U.S. to maintain a safe, reliable, and credible nuclear deterrence posture;
– Relationship among U.S. nuclear deterrence policy, targeting strategy, and arms control objectives;
– Role missile defenses & conventional strike play in determining roles and size of nuclear forces;
– Levels and composition of the nuclear delivery systems;
– Nuclear weapons complex we require, including plans to modernize or modify the complex;
– The nuclear stockpile that will be required for implementing U.S. strategy.
The NPR came up with five key objectives:
– Preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism.
– Reducing the role of nuclear weapons.
– Maintaining strategic deterrence and stability at reduced nuclear force levels.
– Strengthening regional deterrence and reassurance of U.S. allies and partners.
– Sustaining a safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal.
I’ve observed on the diplomatic stage oftentimes major change comes after some nation makes a symbolic gesture of some sort. In 1963, President Kennedy gave a speech in Germany in West Berlin wall declaring: “Two thousand years ago the proudest boast was civis Romanus sum [I am a Roman citizen]. Today, in the world of freedom, the proudest boast is ‘Ich bin ein Berliner’… All free men, wherever they may live, are citizens of Berlin, and, therefore, as a free man, I take pride in the words ‘Ich bin ein Berliner!’” In 1987, President Reagan in a speech by the Berlin Wall issued a challenge to the Soviet Union leader, “Mr. Gorbachev, Tear down this wall!” as a symbol of Reagan’s desire for freedom of the Eastern Bloc nations.
I believe this latest NPR is more symbolic than substantive, but in this instance I’m not expecting a major change. At the risk of being blunt, Mankind has not sufficiently evolved. Ideally it would be great to do away with war but that’s not going to happen in most of our lifetimes. Therefore I am not in favor of eliminating our nuclear inventory. I am a supporter of arms reduction and efforts such as the Start Treaty; but as long as a nuclear threat exists, I believe we need to retain the capability. The NPR does state as long as regional nuclear threats to our forces, allies, and partners remain, deterrence will require a nuclear component.
The NPR also says “The nuclear tipped, sea launched cruise missile (TLAM-N) will be retired as redundant in the overall mix of capabilities” but the U.S. will retain the capability to “forward deploy U.S. nuclear weapons on tactical fighters and heavy bombers”. I think that’s a mistake. TLAM-N’s can be carried by submarines. The bad guys can see aircraft coming and shoot them down. They can’t easily detect a submarine therefore it has a better chance of delivering the weapon on target…I’m just saying.
I’ve watched with interest Iran’s response to the NPR. According to a press report in Aljazeera, “Iran has said it will host a nuclear disarmament conference later this month as part of an effort to ease fears Tehran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons”. The conference will be held April 17-18 and is called “Nuclear Energy for Everyone, Nuclear Arms for No One”. Iran’s announcement came three days after China indicated it would join Iran sanction discussions. Iran has also invited China to its conference. This will be interesting. China of course has not been in favor of new sanctions. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Well I’ll end for now. In my next blog, as promised I’ll look at the new Start Treaty. I’m off to give a couple of talks on the East Coast. I hate leaving the Colorado Rockies but…. As always my views are my own.
