Two recent news stories out of Nigeria continue to keep me on edge about the near future of that country. First, the United States has called for the removal of Independent National Election Commission (INEC) chairman Maurice Iwu. Basically, the Obama administration thinks Iwu is incompetent. But more to the point, they worry that he will be unable to handle the run-up to and aftermath of next year’s scheduled national elections.
Which leads us to the second story. Apparently Interim President Goodluck Jonathan has not spoken with President Umaru Yar’Adua in five months, or since Yar’Adua disappeared for still-mysterious health issues in November. This is a bad omen for a host of reasons, but most of all because the myriad fissures in Nigerian civil society have not historically reacted well to even modest political instability, never mind that characterized by the many issues associated with Yar’Adua’s incapacitation. I hope I am wrong, but despite the fact that Jonathan appears to be doing a remarkably good job in an untenable position, I fear that the next year or so will be difficult ones for Nigeria and could far surpass what happened in the wake of Kenya’s December 2007 elections.
