By Rich Basas (originally posted on FPA’s Latin America blog, here)
The last summer created a great shift in the discussion on security and the nuclear issue worldwide. Protesters in Iran took to the street after a perceived action by President Ahmadinejad in fixing the elections in Iran to maintain himself in power with the backing of Iran’s religious leaders. The popular protests in Iran’s major cities lead to many foreign and local journalists being put on trial and thrown in prison. Many protestors were being killed such as the young Neda, and many others being disappeared in Iran while a media blackout was imposed. The onus of the violence was placed on Western countries and media as Ahmadinejad and supporters of Iran and Hugo Chavez sought to prove how the US and UK killed protestors such as Neda and other Iranians and some others in Venezuela in open interviews with foreign media themselves. Since then, Mr. Obama has been passively seeking support for setting sanctions on Iran and tying up loose ends with Russia and China and the UN Security Council in order to have combined influence to set sanctions on Iran or possibly set a strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Since then, most negotiations have lead to Iran shrugging off the UN and the US publicising new nuclear plants previously hidden in Iran to build a case for actions in the near future. Last week, Iran did not accept the latest conditions of the UN to avoid sanctions, but today Turkish President Erdogan and the Brazilian President Lula da Silva met with Ahmadinejad in Iran and came up with an agreement to send Iranian nuclear material to Turkey, perhaps deflating the political tension in the region and worldwide.
Many political adversaries of Ahmadinejad have good reason to have little faith in the latest agreement between Iran, Turkey and Brazil to reduce Iran’s nuclear capability. The US and Israel currently are fighting against Iranian backed fighters in Iraq, and likely will be maintaining forces in Iraq and Afghanistan past any departure of Western troop to keep Iran buttoned up in the region. Fighters in Lebanon and Syria as well as Gaza have been noted as using weapons originally from Iran in rocketing Israel and being trained by Iranian Special Forces on how to use the new and varied equipment. Iran has made claims numerous times that it will harm Israel in the near future and continuously publish reports on new Iranian tactical missile systems and Anti-Aircraft systems as a passive threat towards its neighbours. Even Arab nations, who traditionally have had many differences with the culturally and religiously separate Persians in Iran, fear the emergence of a Persian nuclear power in the region. On top of those concerns, are those of Iranian opposition in Iran who are currently being kept in prison without trial, or are being convicted without just cause for falsely assisting the West and Israeli Mossad in working against Iran. This political characterisation is often placed on groups in Iranian society as a whole as the Baha’I of Iran consistently are accused of being Israeli agents and are arrested, disappeared and murdered in Ahmadinejad’s Iran.
Brazil has fared relatively well since last summer despite the economic troubles worldwide and the constant debate on Iran’s nuclear capabilities in the US, Europe and Middle East. The question to why Lula and Brazil might want to get involved in such a mess when the country is at the edge of becoming its own economic giant is a valid one, as taking a position too close to one side of the debate or another might create more problems for Brazil than benefits. Lula has done well over his term in office, as he has been a leftist with the policies of a capitalist for the most part, maintaining the economic policies of former President and past opposition leader Fernando Henrique Cardoso while being the leader of the PT with all the rhetoric and populism that comes with being the leader of Brazil’s Workers Party.
The first test of Brazil’s recent position on international conflict was a few months ago in Honduras, as the ousted leader Zelaya took refuge in Brazil’s Embassy in Tegucigalpa and Brazil was forced to protect his interests while maintaining a balance in Honduras’ politically difficult and legally twisted coup. While Honduras’ leaders came to an agreement since then on how to continue running the government, the last few months of President Lula before the October elections has kept a firm position against the current government in Honduras and sent him abroad to Iran and to meet other left leaning leaders and solidify his legacy before close friend to Cardoso and opposition candidate Jose Serra likely takes the Presidency away from the PT and Lula’s candidate. Serra likely will shift Brazil further away from Chavez and Castro optically and deal with the fallout or success of Brazil’s and Turkey’s foreign policy achievement. If successful however, Serra might do well to leave Lula with his legacy of international success and spend his time managing the billions of dollars set out in PAC 2 by Lula’s party as a backhanded gift to the next President of Brazil. If a failure, Lula might have permanently hurt relations with countries abroad that would support Brazil’s growth exponentially, and Iran and Venezuela likely are not the partners to Brazil’s benefit in the future.
While Lula is enjoying the last few months as a successful President and the President that was in power at the beginning of Brazil’s growth as an economic superpower, the last few months will characterise him to a greater degree than the last few years as Brazil’s economically sound socialist president. Lula is risking a lot for Brazil and his own reputation trying to become the reasonable mediator between Chavez and Ahmadinejad and the rest of the world in the last months of his Presidency. Latin America is at the precipice of re-entering the world with a healthy economy and powerful political influence for the first time in four generations. Lula’s legacy might be scarred by his links to the Middle East via Chavez which forces Brazil and Lula to become a character in the world’s worst political Telenovela-with missiles, in modern history. When Lula creates an agreement with Iran that will likely fail, he does not do himself or Brazil a service as the outcome of Iran’s nuclear program will surely not end with this agreement and the human rights violations of Ahmadinejad and Chavez which will eventually come out will not make Lula too popular with those Iranians currently being persecuted in their own popular movements. Iran sought Brazil’s support as it is currently on the Security Council with Turkey, and while the Turks are simply seeking a way to reduce conflicts in their neighbourhood, Brazil cannot be seen as a symbol of the last months of Lula and a constant supporter of all G77 nations when it is now part of the G20 and has significant influence in the global economy and in the UN. Hopefully the agreement on Iran’s nuclear material will be a successful one and it will benefit Lula, the Middle East and the Iranian people in the long run, but as further videos of missiles and rhetoric comes out of Iran and more opposition is disappeared and locked in Evin prison, Lula might have a lot more negative issues to discuss after his Presidency than the positive accomplishments over the last few years of Brazil’s growth.
