The year 2010 began with the West being comprised of untraditional economically weak states developing out of the US economic crisis that started in 2008. Since January, it has expanded into economically crippling other states as the Euro continues to plunge after a Trillion dollar bailout and Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy quickly try to nullify any further effects through rapid bank reforms and other elaborate measures to stop any further losses. The new world order which was predicted to take shape in 2020 has come perhaps in 2010, as non-European and non-American powers assert themselves globally and in opposition to the US and EU policies, values and economic interests.
Last week President Felipe Calderon of Mexico was invited to Washington DC to discuss policy and expand relations between the US and Mexico. Mexico has been in a hot conflict as drug lords, the Mexican army and police forces shoot it out on the northern border with the US and throughout Mexico. So many have been killed in the drug battles since 2008 that it easily completes with the number of innocent victims killed in Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Mexico and the US share a special bond, as there are millions of Mexican citizens, legal and illegal, living in the US. Despite all of the issues between the US and Mexico, Calderon sought to comment on the recent new immigration law in Arizona which allows police offices to request proof of citizenship from members in the community and gives them the power to detain and arrest individuals based upon immigration violations. The debate splits both ways, as drug violence and illegal immigration becomes a large burden for those communities in Arizona to handle without Federal assistance, but also the opportunity to abuse the new powers by police officers and the justice system may leave many open to abuse and a denial of their rights to privacy, property and human rights. When I worked in immigration and refugee law representing and giving legal counsel to refugees and new immigrants and people with no legal status in Canada a few years ago, a new law was passed allowing police officers to detain individuals on immigration matters and process them in refugee detention centres without having to go through the previous process of processing a case with the department of immigration in order to issue an arrest. While the number of illegal immigrants per capita is a lot less in Canada than the US, and the police services are generally seen as legitimate and non-abusive in their actions regarding illegal immigrants, some major issues arose out of the new law. While in the US, illegal residents can apply to get bank accounts, health coverage and insurance in many states, in Canada many medical professionals could not be insured to treat those outside of the system as the public health system does not officially recognise the rights of illegal citizens to be treated. While paid treatment is available, it was uncertain if the public insurance would cover or produce a humane response for those outside of the system. With the new powers of arrest at the time, the fear of many illegal residents to report a crime or create a secure environment for themselves would be called into question. Issues of individuals being assaulted and not being reported by the victims, or in extreme cases, human trafficking incidents and prostitution rings leading to the victims being punished and removed from the country was pushed further underground. While Arizona has other issues of drug violence and large undocumented labour issues, even with trusted police forces there are still major issues and threats towards those illegal residents living within a country.
In Calderon’s speech in Washington he took to support Latinos in Arizona and to reinforce the side of immigrant rights in Arizona, but should foreign leaders speak on internal matters or other countries, especially one single state in the US? While Mexico and the US do share a unique relationship, the push by foreign countries against US policy has become a mainstay of global politics in 2010. Many inside the US claim that Obama is weak on foreign policy, others claim that Bush created a weak America in the eight years of his presidency, but the final outcome is that the foreign power pushback has ranged from a mild one from Calderon in Mexico and Netanyahu in Israel, to more awkward and friendly pushes from China, Brazil and Turkey towards fierce reactions from Iran and a torpedo from North Korea. Calderon’s push comes with the realisation that many in the US support immigrant communities in Arizona and that Federal actions on Arizona make his interference a passive one. In Israel, actions by the Obama administration come with passive warnings to stop settlement building, but with support for many in Israel in recent elections supporting Netanyahu or supporting the country’s responses towards the Gaza conflict and with the West Bank and Gaza, the US realises that it might be able to sway the Israeli government, but it cannot do much to push the Israeli public into another perceived useless tryst and peace negotiations without any real foundations.
Clinton’s latest trip to China is likely one of many that will reassert US influence with the BRIC nations and create a more balanced relationship between the Chinese economy and the US economy. The opening of trade restrictions for US companies working in China was played off against Chinese demands for greater access to the US market. The US treating China as an equal partner so early on when China still is putting its economy into shape and forming a solid internal market is a questionable strategy, but with Chinese support for sanctions on Iran in the UN Security Council and the push to make China an active partner in addressing issues with North Korea, the US places trade and security with China in one political basket that Clinton would do well to address, and for the most part she had done so in the latest discussions with China.
Brazil’s and Turkey’s move last week to deflate the position of the US and Security Council’s actions against Iran came with a softly backhanded response by Madam Clinton. Sanctions would continue to be pressed upon and claims by the US of their “friends” being used by Iran to distract from the real issues a day before the Security Council was to meet to discuss Iran became the US position. Brazil and Turkey, two countries that a decade ago were mired in debt and political crisis, confidently took a global position to remove the threat of nuclear material from Iran with the help of Turkish officials and with support from Brazil. Verbal snips from the three parties, and some support from Chinese officials placed the US in a position to have legally justifiable actions against Iran, but skewed some of the legitimacy of laying sanctions in the process. Support for Iran from Turkey and Brazil is likely not worth much to either emerging country in the long run, but could sour relations between the US and EU towards these two emerging economies.
The final point on US influence globally came this past week when a South Korean warship was assaulted by an apparent North Korean torpedo, leading to joint South Korean-US naval exercises in the region and the complete disengagement between the North and South. No one really knows why this action was taken by North Korea, or even if their leader is still in charge or even alive, but it might be considered as a test for the US as a weakened position is perceived by foreign powers of the last superpower. In reality the US will not fall out of position as a superpower for some time, even with current issues at stake. The US is still the largest economy and is the safeguard of investment when other currencies tend to tumble. South-South trade and relations are inevitable, but are not well practised and do not have the traditional links that comes with the growth of industry, trade and R+D between two or more states. Emerging markets do not automatically relate to an emerging power, and while the US must balance its approached between emerging powers, old allies and BRICs, those emerging markets must also take to balance their own relations and results with their current political decisions as the US and other nations are still key players in the global dynamic and are not the only one’s who can lose legitimacy when making global policy decisions.
