Group D, projected order of finish (top two, in bold, to advance):
Germany, Ghana, Australia, Serbia.
Comments:
Were it not for slightly top-heavier Group G this would be the Group of Death in this year’s tournament. And unlike Group G, this one has no North Korea to save the top four teams. The “worst” seeded team among these four, Ghana, is ranked 31st.
How to account for injury? That seems to be the question that will pervade so many prognosticatrions in this World Cup. My two top teams in the group (one, Ghana, surely a function of magical thinking, but I forwarned you that I would be especially heart-driven by Afriican entries) are both dealing with major injuries that will keep star players out of the competition: Michael Ballack for Germany and Michael Essien for Ghana, with the latter surely a bigger blow than the former given that Germany has incredible depth compareed to their West African counterparts.
Nonetheless I pick both to advance. Germany will win the group because Germany always advances. They have participated in every World Cup they have entered, have been to 14 straight quarterfinals, have been to the semis more than any nation (11), and are tied with Brazil for theost finals appearances with 7. Oh, and they’ve won three times. So, yeah, Germany’s advancing.
As for Ghana, well, they made it to the finals of the African Cup of Nations with Essien missing vast swaths of the tournament on his balky knee. They are deeper than people think. They will benefit from some of the home-pitch advantage of South Africa as the first sub-Saharan country to have gained independence from colonial rule. And, as I said, I’m rolling with my heart on this one.
But both Australia and Serbia are very, very good. The Socceroos were the revelation of the 2006 World Cup. Having risen to the elite levels of global football it seems clear that there is nothing athletically the Aussies cannot do. Pound for pound they have to be in the discussion as best sporting nation on earth.
Serbia, meanwhile, is actually the second highest ranked squad in this group, coming in with a FIFA ranking of 15. But FIFA rankings are sometimes squirrelly, and this is the country’s first World Cup as an independent nation.
I expect this group to be tightly bunched. But in the end Germany is Germany, and the Black Stars of Ghana will ride the momentum of Africa’s World Cup.
