I admit, I’m completely caught up in World Cup fever. It’s obvious from my decline in postings since the games opened two weeks ago. Most evenings I’m glued to the television screen and most mornings I awake to the sound of vuvuzelas on the streets at 6am. So, in the mayhem, I somehow missed the encouraging news in the latest report on the HIV epidemic in South Africa.
The study in question (A Decline in New HIV Infections in South Africa) analyzed three national HIV household surveys from 2002, 2005 and 2008 and provides the first scientific proof that new infections are declining, and most strikingly among 15-24 year olds. Dramatically, the study shows that new infections have declined by 35% from 2002 to 2008, and by60% amongst 15-24 year olds. This study confirms last year’s report, subtitled “A Turning Tide Among Teenagers?“, which found a statistically significant reduction in HIV prevalence in the teenage population and significant increase in condom use amongs young people ages 15-24. One of the principle investigators of the 2009 study, Professor Thomas Rehle, said: “we may witness for the first time a decress in HIV incidence among teenagers.”
The news is not all good. The previous study also found frustrating intractibility of HIV prevalence amongst women aged 25-29, a particularly worrying figure for those working with pregnant women. There are also worrying trends in intergenerational sex (typically young females and older males with higher rates of HIV). However, the study provides a signal that the epidemic in South Africa may have reached a point of stability, with promising signs from the next generation.
Just one more reason to blow my vuvuzela.
