Foreign Policy Blogs

On The Future of the Islamic Republic of Iran

As the world and multi-national corporations come to predict a not so bright future for the regime in Tehran, there are very important factors that need great attention. These factors can play a role in bringing about a wholesale change in Iran’s political system with far-reaching geopolitical implications for the Middle East and beyond:

  • Economic sanctions and the tightening of noose around Iran’s mafia-like run economy
  • Continuation of refusals to provide insurance policies for products shipped to and from Iran
  • Gradual imposition of gasoline embargo and its negative implications for internal politics in Iran
  • Weakening of Iran’s military capability as finding suppliers and spare parts in international markets becomes nearly impossible
  • Doing business with Iran could increasingly mean high degree of liability for executives at multi-national corporations. Avoiding business with Iran, therefore, would translate into greater pressure on the regime as well as ordinary Iranians, leading to further loss of legitimacy for the regime
  • The worsening of the Iranian economy coupled with the Iranian leadership’s proven skills in economic mismanagement could make it clear to everyone inside and outside of Iran that the only option left is a wholesale change in political system
  • As pressure builds up on Iran from all fronts, one important implication could be the emergence of a new group within the Revolutionary Guards Corps who would rise to topple the current hardline leadership to avoid an all out war with the West, the U.S. in particular

The unfolding of internal events in Iran will play a key role on the process of decision making in foreign capitals.

 

Author

Reza Akhlaghi

Great Decisions Discussion group