Foreign Policy Blogs

‘Business as usual’ crop development won’t satisfy future demand

Recent studies undertaken by the University of Illinois state that new methods of crop development must be adopted in response to climate change if grain production is to meet future demand. Don Ort, a University of Illinois professor of crop sciences and USDA/ARS scientist argues that “global change is happening so quickly that its impact on agriculture is taking the world by surprise.”

The University of Illinois’ Free Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) facility, soyFACE, gives researchers the opportunity to create predicted future environments in an open-field setting. Although elevated levels of carbon dioxide have been proven to increase crop yields, they are only increased by half of what was expected and half of what the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used in their model predictions regarding the world’s food supply in 2050. Elevated levels of carbon dioxide also affect other climate change factors such as precipitation patterns. Ort states that “by 2050, rainfall during the Midwest [United States] growing season is projected to drop by 30%.”

The University of Illinois has also researched the effect of elevated ozone levels upon crop yield. Ultimately, Ort concludes that “how top-producing areas fare with climate change will be very important in determining global food security for the future.”

Posted by Hallam Lyall Grant.