According to a just released ABC news report, U.S. public support for the war in Afghanistan has dropped from 52% in December to 43% today. The Taliban must be rejoicing because this shows, at least for the moment that their strategy is working. The bottom line is the Taliban knows they can’t beat U.S. forces in a conventional type war; consequently a major part of their strategy is fought using the media. History shows raise the body count in a conflict and the U.S. public will to continue declines.
This is not necessarily an all bad trait; for history also shows the U.S. public to be among the most caring compassionate people in the world. Our response to world disasters is unmatched. Take the Black Hawk down incident in Somalia in the 1990’s. Many forget our forces were actually in Somalia on a humanitarian mission. Thousands were starving; there was no infrastructure to move food and supplies to the people who needed them. U.S. forces were sent in to help.
In a second ABC news report the director of the Afghanistan Rights Monitor, Ajmal Samadi, was quoted as saying: “Insurgents are certainly carrying out more attacks across the country than at any time before”. There were over 1,200 violent incidents in June, the most in a single month since 2002. The report goes on to state: “Violence has soared as coalition forces, bolstered by 30,000 American reinforcements, move into Taliban strongholds in the south and east to try to wrest the areas from the militants, strengthen Afghan government control and win Afghans’ trust. The insurgents have responded with a wave of ambushes, suicide attacks, roadside bombs and assassinations.”
To help put current events into context it might be useful to give a brief review of the COIN strategy itself. I talked about it in my last blog but think one section is particularly informative. According to the COIN manual, the conflict goes through 3 stages. To better illustrate the maual uses a medical analogy. The following is a condensed version from the manual:
INITIAL STAGE: “STOP THE BLEEDING”
• Initially, COIN operations are similar to emergency first aid for the patient. The goal is to protect the population, break the insurgents’ initiative and momentum, and set the conditions for further engagement.
• Limited offensive operations may be undertaken, but are complemented by stability operations focused on civil security.
• During this stage, friendly and enemy information needed to complete the common operational picture is collected and initial running estimates are developed.
• Counterinsurgents also begin shaping the information environment, including the expectations of the local populace.
MIDDLE STAGE: “INPATIENT CARE—RECOVERY”
• Characterized by efforts aimed at assisting the patient through long-term recovery or restoration of health—which in this case means achieving stability and civil security.
• The desire in this stage is to develop and build resident capability and capacity in the HN government and security forces.
• Focus expands to include governance, provision of essential services, and stimulation of economic development.
• Relationships with HN counterparts in the government and security forces and with the local populace are developed and strengthened.
• The host nation increases its legitimacy through providing security, expanding effective governance, providing essential services, and achieving incremental success in meeting public expectations.
“OUTPATIENT CARE—MOVEMENT TO SELF-SUFFICIENCY”
• Stage three is characterized by the expansion of stability operations across contested regions, ideally using HN forces.
• The main goal for this stage is to transition responsibility for COIN operations to HN leadership.
• The multinational force works with the host nation in an increasingly supporting role, turning over responsibility wherever and whenever appropriate.
It would seem to me we are in the first stage. A counterinsurgency campaign is one of the most difficult conflicts to wage. The war in Afghanistan is just one front of a global terrorism war. One thing the public needs to be aware of is media reporting on the war is incomplete. The media does not have access to all of the information. The nature of war involves concealing as much of your intentions as possible. The other thing the public needs to be aware of is just because something is written in the COIN manual doesn’t mean the military will stick with a concept that is not working. One theme that goes throughout the manual is the need to constantly evaluate whether something is working and make rapid changes as needed.
Well that’s it for now. As always my thoughts are my own. Think I’ll go for a bike ride before it gets too hot!
